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Real Exchange Rate Volatility and the Choice of Regimes in Emerging Markets

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Abstract

Traditional models of the choice of exchange rate regimes ignore the destabilizing effects of sharp and unanticipated exchange rate movements. Recent research, however, has shown that these movements have real costs in emerging markets owing to the dollarization of liabilities. This paper evaluates the performance of an emerging market economy under a credibly fixed-rate, a collapsing fixed-rate, and a flexible-rate regime using a speculative attack model that takes into account the real effects of unanticipated movements in exchange rates. The model is applied to South Korea to determine the dominant exchange rate regime.

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File URL: http://econ.hunter.cuny.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/RePEc/papers/HunterEconWP404.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Hunter College Department of Economics in its series Economics Working Paper Archive at Hunter College with number 404.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 2004
Date of revision: 2004
Handle: RePEc:htr:hcecon:404

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Keywords: Exchange rate regimes; Output volatility; Dollarization; South Korea;

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  1. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti & Nouriel Roubini, 1998. "What Caused the Asian Currency and Financial Crisis?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 343, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
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  3. Maurice Obstfeld, 2000. "The Global Capital Market: Benefactor or Menace?," International Finance 0004001, EconWPA.
  4. Flood, Robert P & Marion, Nancy Peregrim, 1982. "The Transmission of Disturbances under Alternative Exchange-Rate Regimes with Optimal Indexing," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 97(1), pages 43-66, February.
  5. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann, 1999. "Exchange Rates and Financial Fragility," NBER Working Papers 7418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Guillermo Calvo & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2003. "The Mirage of Exchange Rate Regimes for Emerging Market Countries," NBER Working Papers 9808, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Dungey, Mardi, 2004. "Identifying terms of trade effects in real exchange rate movements: evidence from Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 217-235, April.
  8. Osakwe, Patrick N. & Schembri, Lawrence L., 2002. "Real effects of collapsing exchange rate regimes: an application to Mexico," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 299-325, August.
  9. Flood, Robert P. & Hodrick, Robert J., 1986. "Real aspects of exchange rate regime choice with collapsing fixed rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3-4), pages 215-232, November.
  10. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996. "Models of Currency Crises with Self-fulfilling Features," CEPR Discussion Papers 1315, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Qin, Duo, 1998. "Disequilibrium institutional factors in aggregate money demand: evidence from three economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 457-471.
  12. Poole, William, 1970. "Optimal Choice of Monetary Policy Instruments in a Simple Stochastic Macro Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 197-216, May.
  13. Guillermo A. Calvo, 2002. "On dollarization," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 10(2), pages 393-403, July.
  14. Kwack, Sung Yeung, 1998. "Factors contributing to the financial crisis in Korea," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 611-625.
  15. Velasco, Andres, 1996. "Fixed exchange rates: Credibility, flexibility and multiplicity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1023-1035, April.
  16. Guitian, Manuel, 1976. "The effects of changes in the exchange rate on output, prices and the balance of payments," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 65-74, February.
  17. Charles Freedman, 1995. "The role of monetary conditions and the monetary conditions index in the conduct of policy [speech]," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 1995(Autumn), pages 53-59.
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