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Real Exchange Rate Volatility and the Choice of Regimes in Emerging Markets

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Traditional models of the choice of exchange rate regimes ignore the destabilizing effects of sharp and unanticipated exchange rate movements. Recent research, however, has shown that these movements have real costs in emerging markets owing to the dollarization of liabilities. This paper evaluates the performance of an emerging market economy under a credibly fixed-rate, a collapsing fixed-rate, and a flexible-rate regime using a speculative attack model that takes into account the real effects of unanticipated movements in exchange rates. The model is applied to South Korea to determine the dominant exchange rate regime.

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File URL: http://arrow.hunter.cuny.edu/research/papers/HunterEconWP404.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Hunter College: Department of Economics in its series Hunter College Department of Economics Working Papers with number 404.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 2004
Date of revision: 2004
Handle: RePEc:htr:hcecon:404

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Keywords: Exchange rate regimes; Output volatility; Dollarization; South Korea;

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  1. Corsetti, G. & Pesenti, P. & Roubini, N., 1998. "What Caused the Asian Currency and Financial Crisis?," Papers 343, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
  2. Guillermo Calvo & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2003. "The Mirage of Exchange Rate Regimes for Emerging Market Countries," NBER Working Papers 9808, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  8. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1998. "The Global Capital Market: Benefactor or Menace?," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt3kn3n2s8, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  9. Robert P. Flood & Robert J. Hodrick, 1985. "Real Aspects of Exchange Rate Regime Choice with Collapsing Fixed Rates," NBER Working Papers 1603, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. William Poole, 1969. "Optimal choice of monetary policy instruments in a simple stochastic macro model," Special Studies Papers 2, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  11. Guitian, Manuel, 1976. "The effects of changes in the exchange rate on output, prices and the balance of payments," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 65-74, February.
  12. Osakwe, Patrick N. & Schembri, Lawrence L., 2002. "Real effects of collapsing exchange rate regimes: an application to Mexico," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 299-325, August.
  13. Guillermo A. Calvo, 2002. "On dollarization," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 10(2), pages 393-403, July.
  14. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann, 1999. "Exchange rates and financial fragility," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 329-368.
  15. Honig, Adam, 2009. "Dollarization, exchange rate regimes and government quality," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 198-214, March.
  16. Velasco, Andres, 1996. "Fixed exchange rates: Credibility, flexibility and multiplicity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1023-1035, April.
  17. Qin, Duo, 1998. "Disequilibrium institutional factors in aggregate money demand: evidence from three economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 457-471.
  18. Dungey, Mardi, 2004. "Identifying terms of trade effects in real exchange rate movements: evidence from Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 217-235, April.
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