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Real Exchange Rate Volatility and the Choice of Regimes in Emerging Markets

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Abstract

Traditional models of the choice of exchange rate regimes ignore the destabilizing effects of sharp and unanticipated exchange rate movements. Recent research, however, has shown that these movements have real costs in emerging markets owing to the dollarization of liabilities. This paper evaluates the performance of an emerging market economy under a credibly fixed-rate, a collapsing fixed-rate, and a flexible-rate regime using a speculative attack model that takes into account the real effects of unanticipated movements in exchange rates. The model is applied to South Korea to determine the dominant exchange rate regime.

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File URL: http://econ.hunter.cuny.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/RePEc/papers/HunterEconWP404.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Hunter College Department of Economics in its series Economics Working Paper Archive at Hunter College with number 404.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 2004
Date of revision: 2004
Handle: RePEc:htr:hcecon:404

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Keywords: Exchange rate regimes; Output volatility; Dollarization; South Korea;

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  1. Maurice Obstfeld, 1998. "The Global Capital Market: Benefactor or Menace?," NBER Working Papers 6559, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, December.
  3. Robert P. Flood & Nancy Peregrim Marion, 1980. "The Transmission of Disturbances under Alternative Exchange-Rate Regimeswith Optimal Indexing," NBER Working Papers 0500, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Guillermo A. Calvo, 2002. "On dollarization," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 10(2), pages 393-403, July.
  5. Flood, Robert P. & Hodrick, Robert J., 1986. "Real aspects of exchange rate regime choice with collapsing fixed rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3-4), pages 215-232, November.
  6. Osakwe, Patrick & Schembri, Lawrence, 1999. "Real Effects of Collapsing Exchange Rate Regimes: An Application to Mexico," Working Papers 99-10, Bank of Canada.
  7. Charles Freedman, 1995. "The role of monetary conditions and the monetary conditions index in the conduct of policy [speech]," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 1995(Autumn), pages 53-59.
  8. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1999. "What caused the Asian currency and financial crisis?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 305-373, October.
  9. William Poole, 1970. "Optimal choice of monetary policy instruments in a simple stochastic macro model," Staff Studies 57, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  10. Guillermo Calvo & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2003. "The Mirage of Exchange Rate Regimes for Emerging Market Countries," NBER Working Papers 9808, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann, 1999. "Exchange rates and financial fragility," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 329-368.
  12. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996. "Models of currency crises with self-fulfilling features," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1037-1047, April.
  13. Kwack, Sung Yeung, 1998. "Factors contributing to the financial crisis in Korea," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 611-625.
  14. Guitian, Manuel, 1976. "The effects of changes in the exchange rate on output, prices and the balance of payments," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 65-74, February.
  15. Dungey, Mardi, 2004. "Identifying terms of trade effects in real exchange rate movements: evidence from Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 217-235, April.
  16. Velasco, Andres, 1996. "Fixed exchange rates: Credibility, flexibility and multiplicity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1023-1035, April.
  17. Qin, Duo, 1998. "Disequilibrium institutional factors in aggregate money demand: evidence from three economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 457-471.
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