IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hit/sspjdp/dp17-007.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Who Are Afraid of Losing Their Jobs to Artificial Intelligence and Robots? Evidence from a Survey

Author

Listed:
  • Morikawa, Masayuki

Abstract

This study, using original survey data of 10,000 individuals, analyzes the possible impacts of artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics on employment. The first interest of this study is to ascertain, from the viewpoint of workers, what types of worker characteristics are associated with the perception of risk of jobs being replaced by the development of AI and robotics. The second interest is to identify, from the viewpoint of consumers, what types of services are likely to be replaced by AI and robotics. The results suggest that malleable/adaptable high skills acquired through higher education, particularly in science and engineering, are complementary with new technologies such as AI and robotics. At the same time, occupation-specific skills acquired by attending professional schools or holding occupational licenses, particularly those related to human-intensive services, are less likely to be replaced by AI and robotics.

Suggested Citation

  • Morikawa, Masayuki, 2017. "Who Are Afraid of Losing Their Jobs to Artificial Intelligence and Robots? Evidence from a Survey," SSPJ Discussion Paper Series DP17-007, Service Sector Productivity in Japan: Determinants and Policies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  • Handle: RePEc:hit:sspjdp:dp17-007
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hermes-ir.lib.hit-u.ac.jp/hermes/ir/re/30381/DP17-007.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Winters, John V., 2014. "STEM graduates, human capital externalities, and wages in the U.S," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 190-198.
    2. Alan B. Krueger, 1993. "How Computers Have Changed the Wage Structure: Evidence from Microdata, 1984–1989," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(1), pages 33-60.
    3. Georg Graetz & Guy Michaels, 2018. "Robots at Work," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(5), pages 753-768, December.
    4. Melanie Arntz & Terry Gregory & Ulrich Zierahn, 2016. "The Risk of Automation for Jobs in OECD Countries: A Comparative Analysis," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 189, OECD Publishing.
    5. Eric A. Hanushek & Guido Schwerdt & Ludger Woessmann & Lei Zhang, 2017. "General Education, Vocational Education, and Labor-Market Outcomes over the Lifecycle," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 52(1), pages 48-87.
    6. Van Reenen, John, 2011. "Wage inequality, technology and trade: 21st century evidence," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 730-741.
    7. Timothy F. Bresnahan & Erik Brynjolfsson & Lorin M. Hitt, 2002. "Information Technology, Workplace Organization, and the Demand for Skilled Labor: Firm-Level Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(1), pages 339-376.
    8. Maarten Goos & Alan Manning, 2007. "Lousy and Lovely Jobs: The Rising Polarization of Work in Britain," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(1), pages 118-133, February.
    9. Lechevalier, Sébastien & Nishimura, Junichi & Storz, Cornelia, 2014. "Diversity in patterns of industry evolution: How an intrapreneurial regime contributed to the emergence of the service robot industry," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(10), pages 1716-1729.
    10. Dirk Krueger & Krishna B. Kumar, 2004. "Skill-Specific rather than General Education: A Reason for US--Europe Growth Differences?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 167-207, June.
    11. Giorgio Brunello & Lorenzo Rocco, 2017. "The Labor Market Effects of Academic and Vocational Education over the Life Cycle: Evidence Based on a British Cohort," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 11(1), pages 106-166.
    12. Frey, Carl Benedikt & Osborne, Michael A., 2017. "The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 254-280.
    13. David H. Autor, 2015. "Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future of Workplace Automation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 3-30, Summer.
    14. Giovanni Peri & Kevin Shih & Chad Sparber, 2016. "STEM Workers, H-1B Visas, and Productivity in US Cities," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: The Economics of International Migration, chapter 9, pages 277-307, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    15. Maarten Goos & Alan Manning & Anna Salomons, 2014. "Explaining Job Polarization: Routine-Biased Technological Change and Offshoring," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(8), pages 2509-2526, August.
    16. Masayuki Morikawa, 2017. "Firms' Expectations About The Impact Of Ai And Robotics: Evidence From A Survey," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(2), pages 1054-1063, April.
    17. Benjamin David, 2017. "Computer technology and probable job destructions in Japan: An evaluation," Post-Print hal-01549790, HAL.
    18. Joel Mokyr & Chris Vickers & Nicolas L. Ziebarth, 2015. "The History of Technological Anxiety and the Future of Economic Growth: Is This Time Different?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 31-50, Summer.
    19. David, Benjamin, 2017. "Computer technology and probable job destructions in Japan: An evaluation," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 77-87.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ivanov, Stanislav Hristov & Kuyumdzhiev, Mihail & Webster, Craig, 2020. "Automation fears: drivers and solutions," SocArXiv jze3u, Center for Open Science.
    2. Caselli, Mauro & Fracasso, Andrea & Marcolin, Arianna & Scicchitano, Sergio, 2021. "The reassuring effect of firms' technological innovations on workers' job insecurity," GLO Discussion Paper Series 938, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    3. Abeliansky, Ana Lucia & Beulmann, Matthias, 2019. "Are they coming for us? Industrial robots and the mental health of workers," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 379, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    4. HAMAGUCHI Nobuaki & KONDO Keisuke, 2018. "Regional Employment and Artificial Intelligence in Japan," Discussion papers 18032, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    5. Ivanov, Stanislav & Kuyumdzhiev, Mihail & Webster, Craig, 2020. "Automation fears: Drivers and solutions," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    6. Tom Coupé, 2018. "Robots, Job Characteristics and Job Insecurity," Working Papers in Economics 18/05, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    7. Kovács, Olivér, 2022. "Inkluzív kormányzás az ipar 4.0 korában - Japán példája [Inclusive governance in the age of Industry 4.0 - The example of Japan]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(2), pages 255-277.
    8. Arntz, Melanie & Blesse, Sebastian & Doerrenberg, Philipp, 2022. "The end of work is near, isn't it? Survey evidence on automation angst," ZEW Discussion Papers 22-036, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Morikawa, Masayuki, 2017. "Who Are Afraid of Losing Their Jobs to Artificial Intelligence and Robots? Evidence from a Survey," GLO Discussion Paper Series 71, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    2. MIYAKAWA Daisuke & MIYAUCHI Yuhei & Christian PEREZ, 2017. "Who Are Afraid of Losing Their Jobs to Artificial Intelligence and Robots? Evidence from a survey," Discussion papers 17069, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    3. MORIKAWA Masayuki, 2016. "The Effects of Artificial Intelligence and Robotics on Business and Employment: Evidence from a survey on Japanese firms," Discussion papers 16066, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    4. Masayuki Morikawa, 2017. "Firms' Expectations About The Impact Of Ai And Robotics: Evidence From A Survey," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(2), pages 1054-1063, April.
    5. Cirillo, Valeria & Evangelista, Rinaldo & Guarascio, Dario & Sostero, Matteo, 2021. "Digitalization, routineness and employment: An exploration on Italian task-based data," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(7).
    6. Caselli, Mauro & Fracasso, Andrea & Scicchitano, Sergio & Traverso, Silvio & Tundis, Enrico, 2021. "Stop worrying and love the robot: An activity-based approach to assess the impact of robotization on employment dynamics," GLO Discussion Paper Series 802, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    7. Davide Dottori, 2021. "Robots and employment: evidence from Italy," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 38(2), pages 739-795, July.
    8. Maarten Goos & Melanie Arntz & Ulrich Zierahn & Terry Gregory & Stephanie Carretero Gomez & Ignacio Gonzalez Vazquez & Koen Jonkers, 2019. "The Impact of Technological Innovation on the Future of Work," JRC Working Papers on Labour, Education and Technology 2019-03, Joint Research Centre.
    9. Rita K. Almeida & Ana M. Fernandes & Mariana Viollaz, 2017. "Does the Adoption of Complex Software Impact Employment Composition and the Skill Content of Occupations? Evidence from Chilean Firms," CEDLAS, Working Papers 0214, CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    10. Zilian, Laura S. & Zilian, Stella S. & Jäger, Georg, 2021. "Labour market polarisation revisited: evidence from Austrian vacancy data," Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 55, pages 1-7.
    11. David J. Deming, 2017. "The Growing Importance of Social Skills in the Labor Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(4), pages 1593-1640.
    12. Gregory, Terry & Salomons, Anna & Zierahn, Ulrich, 2016. "Racing With or Against the Machine? Evidence from Europe," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145843, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    13. Arntz, Melanie & Gregory, Terry & Zierahn, Ulrich, 2016. "ELS issues in robotics and steps to consider them. Part 1: Robotics and employment. Consequences of robotics and technological change for the structure and level of employment," ZEW Expertises, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, number 146501.
    14. Fierro, Luca Eduardo & Caiani, Alessandro & Russo, Alberto, 2022. "Automation, Job Polarisation, and Structural Change," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 499-535.
    15. Cortes, Guido Matias & Salvatori, Andrea, 2019. "Delving into the demand side: Changes in workplace specialization and job polarization," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 164-176.
    16. Robert Stehrer, 2022. "The Impact of ICT and Intangible Capital Accumulation on Labour Demand Growth and Functional Income Shares," wiiw Working Papers 218, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    17. Graetz, Georg, 2020. "Technological change and the Swedish labor market," Working Paper Series 2020:19, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    18. Ben Vermeulen & Jan Kesselhut & Andreas Pyka & Pier Paolo Saviotti, 2018. "The Impact of Automation on Employment: Just the Usual Structural Change?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-27, May.
    19. Gunther Tichy, 2016. "Geht der Arbeitsgesellschaft die Arbeit aus?," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 89(12), pages 853-871, December.
    20. HAMAGUCHI Nobuaki & KONDO Keisuke, 2018. "Regional Employment and Artificial Intelligence in Japan," Discussion papers 18032, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    artificial intelligence; robotics; skill; household production;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hit:sspjdp:dp17-007. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Digital Resources Section, Hitotsubashi University Library (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sshitjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.