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Computer technology and probable job destructions in Japan: An evaluation

Author

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  • Benjamin David

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Computer technology is currently experiencing important developments by generating new tools and methods with increasing capacities. This suggests that a growing share of economic tasks could be performed by this new capital at the expense of labor. This paper evaluates the risk of job destructions induced by computer technology in Japan. We aim at assessing the vulnerability of employment from a technical point of view by considering jobs' differential dotation in non-programmable skills. Relying on machine learning technique, we find evidence that approximatively 55% of jobs are susceptible to be carried by computer capital in the next years. We also show that there is no significant difference on the basis of gender. On the contrary, non-regular jobs (those that concern temporary and part-time workers) are more vulnerable to computer technology diffusion than the others. These findings, based on technical background, shed light on the scale of the potential capital/labor substitution but this dynamics will also depends on economic and social factors. (C) 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Suggested Citation

  • Benjamin David, 2017. "Computer technology and probable job destructions in Japan: An evaluation," Post-Print hal-01549790, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01549790
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jjie.2017.01.001
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    Cited by:

    1. Yang, Siying & Liu, Fengshuo & Lu, Jingjing & He, Xiaogang, 2022. "Does occupational injury promote industrial robot applications?," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    2. Morikawa, Masayuki, 2017. "Who Are Afraid of Losing Their Jobs to Artificial Intelligence and Robots? Evidence from a Survey," GLO Discussion Paper Series 71, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    3. Wang, Chengzhang & Zheng, Min & Bai, Xiaoming & Li, Youwei & Shen, Wei, 2023. "Future of jobs in China under the impact of artificial intelligence," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PA).
    4. Iftekhairul Islam & Fahad Shaon, 2020. "If the Prospect of Some Occupations Are Stagnating With Technological Advancement? A Task Attribute Approach to Detect Employment Vulnerability," Papers 2001.02783, arXiv.org.
    5. Marta Postuła & Wojciech Chmielewski & Piotr Puczyński & Rafał Cieślik, 2021. "The Impact of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) on Energy Poverty and Unemployment in Selected European Union Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-18, September.
    6. Peter Haiss & Bernhard Mahlberg & Daniel Michlits, 2021. "Industry 4.0–the future of Austrian jobs," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 48(1), pages 5-36, February.
    7. Filippi, Emilia & Bannò, Mariasole & Trento, Sandro, 2023. "Automation technologies and the risk of substitution of women: Can gender equality in the institutional context reduce the risk?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    8. Michael Coelli & Jeff Borland, 2019. "Behind the headline number: Why not to rely on Frey and Osborne’s predictions of potential job loss from automation," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2019n10, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    9. Oliver Kovacs, 2022. "Inclusive Industry 4.0 in Europe—Japanese Lessons on Socially Responsible Industry 4.0," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-26, January.
    10. Cao, Yuqiang & Hu, Yong & Liu, Qian & Lu, Meiting & Shan, Yaowen, 2023. "Job creation or disruption? Unraveling the effects of smart city construction on corporate employment in China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    11. Chee‐Hong Law & Siong Hook Law, 2024. "The non‐linear impacts of innovation on unemployment: Evidence from panel data," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 402-424, January.
    12. Filippi, Emilia & Bannò, Mariasole & Trento, Sandro, 2023. "Automation technologies and their impact on employment: A review, synthesis and future research agenda," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    13. Chenhui Ding & Xiaoming Song & Yingchun Xing & Yuxuan Wang, 2023. "Bilateral Effects of the Digital Economy on Manufacturing Employment: Substitution Effect or Creation Effect?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-22, October.
    14. Gizem Akar & Giorgia Casalone & Martin Zagler, 2023. "You have been terminated: robots, work, and taxation," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 70(3), pages 283-300, September.
    15. Morikawa, Masayuki, 2017. "Who Are Afraid of Losing Their Jobs to Artificial Intelligence and Robots? Evidence from a Survey," GLO Discussion Paper Series 71, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    16. Mauro Caselli & Andrea Fracasso & Sergio Scicchitano & Silvio Traverso & Enrico Tundis, 2021. "Stop worrying and love the robot: An activity-based approach to assess the impact of robotization on employment dynamics," DEM Working Papers 2021/06, Department of Economics and Management.
    17. Zhihui Dai & Yue Niu & Hongru Zhang & Xiaodi Niu, 2022. "Impact of the Transforming and Upgrading of China’s Labor-Intensive Manufacturing Industry on the Labor Market," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-25, October.
    18. MIYAKAWA Daisuke & MIYAUCHI Yuhei & Christian PEREZ, 2017. "Who Are Afraid of Losing Their Jobs to Artificial Intelligence and Robots? Evidence from a survey," Discussion papers 17069, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    19. Imran Hussain Shah & Konstantinos Kollydas & Pak Yee Lee & Issam Malki & Crystal Chu, 2024. "Does R&D investment drive employment growth? Empirical evidence at industry level from Japan," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 102-118, January.
    20. Kovács, Olivér, 2022. "Inkluzív kormányzás az ipar 4.0 korában - Japán példája [Inclusive governance in the age of Industry 4.0 - The example of Japan]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(2), pages 255-277.
    21. MORIKAWA Masayuki, 2020. "Heterogeneous Relationships between Automation Technologies and Skilled Labor: Evidence from a Firm Survey," Discussion papers 20004, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).

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