Labor-Force Participation Rates and the Informational Value of Unemployment Rates: Evidence from Disaggregated US Data
AbstractThe informational value of the aggregate US unemployment rate has recently been questioned because of a unit root in the labor-force participation rate; the lack of mean reversion implies that long-run changes in unemployment rates are highly unlikely to reflect long-run changes in joblessness. This paper shows that this critique also extends to unemployment rates for sub-populations, such as prime-aged males.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Uppsala University, Department of Economics in its series Working Paper Series with number 2010:14.
Length: 10 pages
Date of creation: 30 Aug 2010
Date of revision:
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Postal: Department of Economics, Uppsala University, P. O. Box 513, SE-751 20 Uppsala, Sweden
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Mean reversion; Unit-root test;
Other versions of this item:
- Gustavsson, Magnus & Österholm, Pär, 2012. "Labor-force participation rates and the informational value of unemployment rates: Evidence from disaggregated US data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 116(3), pages 408-410.
- Gustavsson, Magnus & Österholm, Pär, 2010. "Labor-Force Participation Rates and the Informational Value of Unemployment Rates: Evidence from Disaggregated US Data," Working Paper Series, Center for Labor Studies 2010:13, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
- Gustavsson, Magnus & Österholm, Pär, 2010. "Labor-Force Participation Rates and the Informational Value of Unemployment Rates: Evidence from Disaggregated US Data," Working Paper 120, National Institute of Economic Research.
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
- J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
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