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Baby Booms and Drug Busts: Trends in Youth Drug use in the United States, 1975–2000

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  • Mireille Jacobson

Abstract

Are there agglomeration economies in crime? The positive correlation between city size and crime rates is well-known. This paper establishes a positive relationship between youth cohort size and marijuana use rates. It further demonstrates a negative association between youth cohort size and marijuana prices, youth drug possession arrest rates, and both overall and youth sales arrest rates. Cohort size affects demand by lowering possession arrest probabilities, but this factor explains less than 10 percent of the relationship. The main effect shown here, accounting for at least a quarter of the relationship, is on the supply of marijuana. Larger youth cohorts yield thicker drug markets that, through lower sales arrest risk and informational economies, generate cost-savings in drug distribution.

Suggested Citation

  • Mireille Jacobson, 2004. "Baby Booms and Drug Busts: Trends in Youth Drug use in the United States, 1975–2000," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(4), pages 1481-1512.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:qjecon:v:119:y:2004:i:4:p:1481-1512.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1162/0033553042476125
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    Cited by:

    1. David M. Cutler & J. Travis Donahoe, 2024. "Thick Market Externalities and the Persistence of the Opioid Epidemic," NBER Working Papers 32055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Gustavsson, Magnus & Österholm, Pär, 2012. "Labor-force participation rates and the informational value of unemployment rates: Evidence from disaggregated US data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 116(3), pages 408-410.
    3. D. Mark Anderson & Kyutaro Matsuzawa & Joseph J. Sabia, 2020. "Cigarette Taxes and Teen Marijuana Use," NBER Working Papers 26780, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Baicker, Katherine & Jacobson, Mireille, 2007. "Finders keepers: Forfeiture laws, policing incentives, and local budgets," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(11-12), pages 2113-2136, December.
    5. Auriol, Emmanuelle & Mesnard, Alice & Perrault, Tiffanie, 2023. "Weeding out the dealers? The economics of cannabis legalization," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 216(C), pages 62-101.
    6. D. Mark Anderson & Benjamin Hansen & Daniel I. Rees, 2013. "Medical Marijuana Laws, Traffic Fatalities, and Alcohol Consumption," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(2), pages 333-369.
    7. Martha J. Bailey, 2013. "Fifty Years of Family Planning: New Evidence on the Long-Run Effects of Increasing Access to Contraception," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 44(1 (Spring), pages 341-409.
    8. Chu, Yu-Wei Luke, 2014. "The effects of medical marijuana laws on illegal marijuana use," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 43-61.
    9. Costa Storti, Cláudia & Grauwe, Paul & Sabadash, Anna & Montanari, Linda, 2011. "Unemployment and drug treatment," MPRA Paper 61799, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Chioda, Laura & De Mello, João M.P. & Soares, Rodrigo R., 2016. "Spillovers from conditional cash transfer programs: Bolsa Família and crime in urban Brazil," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 306-320.
    11. David Powell & Rosalie Liccardo Pacula, 2021. "The Evolving Consequences of OxyContin Reformulation on Drug Overdoses," American Journal of Health Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(1), pages 41-67.
    12. Jan C. van Ours & Jenny Williams, 2011. "Cannabis use and mental health problems," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(7), pages 1137-1156, November.
    13. Powell, David & Pacula, Rosalie Liccardo & Taylor, Erin, 2020. "How increasing medical access to opioids contributes to the opioid epidemic: Evidence from Medicare Part D," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    14. Carlos Díaz & Eleonora Patacchini, 2023. "Parents, neighbors and youth crime," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 673-692, June.
    15. Barankay, Iwan & Lockwood, Ben, 2007. "Decentralization and the productive efficiency of government: Evidence from Swiss cantons," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(5-6), pages 1197-1218, June.
    16. Park, Sujeong & Powell, David, 2021. "Is the rise in illicit opioids affecting labor supply and disability claiming rates?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    17. Gustavsson, Magnus & Osterholm, Par, 2006. "The informational value of unemployment statistics: A note on the time series properties of participation rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 92(3), pages 428-433, September.
    18. Smart, Rosanna & Doremus, Jacqueline, 2023. "The kids aren’t alright: The effects of medical marijuana market size on adolescents," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    19. Anderson, D. Mark & Matsuzawa, Kyutaro & Sabia, Joseph J., 2020. "Cigarette Taxes and Teen Marijuana Use," IZA Discussion Papers 12980, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

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