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Duration dependence versus unobserved heterogeneity in treatment effects: Swedish labor market training and the transition rate to employment

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Author Info
Richardson, Katarina (Swedish Ministry of Finance)
van den Berg, Gerard J () (Department of Economics, VU University Amsterdam)

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Abstract

The vocational employment training program is the most expensive training program in Sweden and a cornerstone of labor market policy. We analyze its causal effects on the individual transition rate from unemployment to employment by exploiting variation in the timing of treatment and outcome, dealing with selectivity on unobservables. We demonstrate the appropriateness of this approach in our context by studying the enrollment process. We develop a model allowing for duration dependence and unobserved heterogeneity (leading to spurious duration dependence) in the treatment effect itself, and we prove non-parametric identification. The data cover the population and include multiple unemployment spells for many individuals. The results indicate a large significantly positive effect on exit to work shortly after exiting the program. The effect at the inidividual level diminishes after some weeks. When taking account of the time spent in the program, the effect on the mean unemployment duration is small.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by IFAU - Institute for Labour Market Policy Evaluation in its series Working Paper Series with number 2008:7.

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Length: 49 pages
Date of creation: 27 Apr 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2008_007

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Related research
Keywords: Vocational training; progam evaluation; duration analysis; selectivity bias; dynamic treatments; active labor policy; identification;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods
C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis
J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Brännäs, Kurt, 2000. "Estimation in a Duration Model for Evaluating Educational Programs," UmeÃ¥ Economic Studies 521, Umeå University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Regner, Hakan, 2002. "A nonexperimental evaluation of training programs for the unemployed in Sweden," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 187-206, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Robert G. Fay, 1996. "Enhancing the Effectiveness of Active Labour Market Policies: Evidence from Programme Evaluations in OECD Countries," OECD Labour Market and Social Policy Occasional Papers 18, OECD, Directorate for Employment, Labour and Social Affairs. [Downloadable!]
  4. Van den Berg, Gerard J., 2000. "Duration Models: Specification, Identification, and Multiple Durations," MPRA Paper 9446, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Ridder, Geert & Tunali, Insan, 1999. "Stratified partial likelihood estimation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 193-232, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Albrecht, James & van den Berg, Gerard J & Vroman, Susan, 2007. "The aggregate labor market effects of the Swedish knowledge lift program," Working Paper Series 2008:1, IFAU - Institute for Labour Market Policy Evaluation. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. James J. Heckman & Christopher R. Taber, 1994. "Econometric Mixture Models and More General Models for Unobservables in Duration Analysis," NBER Technical Working Papers 0157, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Carling, Kenneth & Edin, Per-Anders & Harkman, Anders & Holmlund, Bertil, 1996. "Unemployment duration, unemployment benefits, and labor market programs in Sweden," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 313-334, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Ridder, Geert, 1990. "The Non-parametric Identification of Generalized Accelerated Failure-Time Models," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 57(2), pages 167-81, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Matz Dahlberg & Anders Forslund, 2005. "Direct Displacement Effects of Labour Market Programmes," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 107(3), pages 475-494, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Heckman, James J. & Lalonde, Robert J. & Smith, Jeffrey A., 1999. "The economics and econometrics of active labor market programs," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 31, pages 1865-2097 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Jaap H. Abbring & Gerard J. van den Berg, 2004. "Analyzing the effect of dynamically assigned treatments using duration models, binary treatment models, and panel data models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 5-20, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Jaap H. Abbring & Gerard J. van den Berg, 2003. "The Nonparametric Identification of Treatment Effects in Duration Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(5), pages 1491-1517, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Edin, P-A. & Holmlund, B., 1990. "Unemployment, Vacancies And Labour Market Programmes: Swedish Evidence," Papers 1990j, Uppsala - Working Paper Series.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Bergemann, Annette & van den Berg, Gerard J., 2008. "From Giving Birth to Paid Labor: The Effects of Adult Education for Prime-Aged Mothers," IZA Discussion Papers 3600, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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