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Screening for a Chronic Disease: A Multiple Stage Duration Model with Partial Observability

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Author Info

  • Gabriel Picone

    ()
    (Department of Economics, University of South Florida)

  • Arseniy Yashkin

    ()
    (Department of Economics, University of South Florida)

  • Thomas Mroz
  • Frank Sloan

Abstract

This study develops a discrete multiple state duration model for screen- ing a chronic disease that allows for duration dependence, unmeasured heterogeneity, partial observability of the state and endogenous treat- ment. We study whether screening for diabetes is e¤ective in delaying progression of complications of the lower extremities. Our results show that early diagnoses of diabetes reduces the probabilities of transitioning to a worse disease stage, death or amputation. In particular, decreasing the time screening for the onset of diabetes from every four years to once a year after age 65 saves: 54 lives, 10 amputations, and 89 lower extremity complications of 10,000 individuals by age 80.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of South Florida, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 0213.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:usf:wpaper:0213

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Related research

Keywords: Screening; parital observability; chronic disease;

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References

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  1. Jayanta Bhattacharya, 2005. "Specialty Selection and Lifetime Returns to Specialization Within Medicine," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 40(1).
  2. Mroz, Thomas A., 1999. "Discrete factor approximations in simultaneous equation models: Estimating the impact of a dummy endogenous variable on a continuous outcome," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 233-274, October.
  3. Heckman, James & Singer, Burton, 1984. "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 271-320, March.
  4. Bo E. Honoré & Adriana Lleras-Muney, 2006. "Bounds in Competing Risks Models and the War on Cancer," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(6), pages 1675-1698, November.
  5. Gabriel A. Picone & Frank A. Sloan & Shin-Yi Chou & Donald H. Taylor, 2003. "Does Higher Hospital Cost Imply Higher Quality of Care?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(1), pages 51-62, February.
  6. Liu, Haiyong & Mroz, Thomas A. & van der Klaauw, Wilbert, 2010. "Maternal employment, migration, and child development," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 156(1), pages 212-228, May.
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