Screening for a Chronic Disease: A Multiple Stage Duration Model with Partial Observability
AbstractThis study develops a discrete multiple state duration model for screen- ing a chronic disease that allows for duration dependence, unmeasured heterogeneity, partial observability of the state and endogenous treat- ment. We study whether screening for diabetes is e¤ective in delaying progression of complications of the lower extremities. Our results show that early diagnoses of diabetes reduces the probabilities of transitioning to a worse disease stage, death or amputation. In particular, decreasing the time screening for the onset of diabetes from every four years to once a year after age 65 saves: 54 lives, 10 amputations, and 89 lower extremity complications of 10,000 individuals by age 80.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of South Florida, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 0213.
Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2013
Date of revision:
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Screening; parital observability; chronic disease;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
- C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Production
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