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Superstars without talent? The Yule distribution controversy

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  • Spierdijk, Laura

    (Dept. of Econometrics, University of Groningen)

  • Voorneveld, Mark

    (Dept. of Economics, Stockholm School of Economics)

Abstract

Chung and Cox (1994) provided an intuitively appealing stochastic model which indicates that superstars may exist regardless of talent and which gives rise to the Yule distribution. We adopt a different empirical approach and test its goodness-of-fit using a parametric bootstrap and several powerful test statistics. Just like the discrete Pareto distribution, it is overwhelmingly rejected: it is a fairly accurate approximation of the lower quantiles of the superstar distribution, but overestimates the snowball effect that makes consumers purchase records of the most successful artists. In other words, the Yule distribution captures stardom, but not superstardom. A generalization of the Yule distribution provides an excellent fit in two of the three data sets.

Suggested Citation

  • Spierdijk, Laura & Voorneveld, Mark, 2007. "Superstars without talent? The Yule distribution controversy," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 658, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 06 Dec 2007.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:hastef:0658
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Raymond A.K. Cox & Robert T. Kleiman, 2000. "A stochastic model of superstardom: evidence from institutional investor's All‐American Research Team," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 9(1), pages 43-53, March.
    2. Victor Ginsburgh & David Throsby, 2006. "Handbook of the economics of art and culture," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/1673, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    3. Adler, Moshe, 2006. "Stardom and Talent," Handbook of the Economics of Art and Culture, in: V.A. Ginsburgh & D. Throsby (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Art and Culture, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 25, pages 895-906, Elsevier.
    4. Adler, Moshe, 1985. "Stardom and Talent," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(1), pages 208-212, March.
    5. Giles, David E., 2006. "Superstardom in the US popular music industry revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 68-74, July.
    6. Chung, Kee H & Cox, Raymond A K, 1994. "A Stochastic Model of Superstardom: An Application of the Yule Distribution," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(4), pages 771-775, November.
    7. Rosen, Sherwin, 1981. "The Economics of Superstars," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(5), pages 845-858, December.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Brinja Meiseberg, 2014. "Trust the artist versus trust the tale: performance implications of talent and self-marketing in folk music," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 38(1), pages 9-42, February.
    2. Francisco Alcalá & Miguel González‐Maestre, 2012. "Artistic Creation and Intellectual Property: A Professional Career Approach," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 633-672, September.
    3. Günther G. Schulze, 2011. "Superstars," Chapters, in: Ruth Towse (ed.), A Handbook of Cultural Economics, Second Edition, chapter 56, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Fabrizio Leisen & Luca Rossini & Cristiano Villa, 2018. "Objective bayesian analysis of the Yule–Simon distribution with applications," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 99-126, March.
    5. Martínez-Rodríguez, A.M. & Sáez-Castillo, A.J. & Conde-Sánchez, A., 2011. "Modelling using an extended Yule distribution," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 863-873, January.
    6. Hofmann, Julian & Schnittka, Oliver & Johnen, Marius & Kottemann, Pascal, 2021. "Talent or popularity: What drives market value and brand image for human brands?," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 748-758.
    7. Kotrba, Vojtěch, 2019. "Direct preferences of sports fans: Is there a superstar effect in the fantasy league?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 89-97.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Superstardom; Yule distribution;

    JEL classification:

    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • L82 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Entertainment; Media
    • Z11 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Economics of the Arts and Literature

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