The Exchange Rate Pass-Through in a Cointegrated VAR Model
AbstractThis paper analyzes the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) into consumer prices for 12 euro area (EA) countries within a cointegrated VAR (CVAR) framework. Using the Johansen cointegration procedure, results indicate the existence of one cointegrating vectors at least for each EA country of our sample. When measuring the long-run effect of exchange rate changes on consumer prices, we found a wide dispersion of ERPT elasticities, especially between "peripheral" and "core" EA economies. For instance, consumer prices rise by 84% in Portugal following one percent depreciation of exchange rate, while for the German economy the extent of pass-through is not exceeding 0.20%. Besides, the loading factors point out a very slow adjustment of consumer prices towards their long-run equilibrium across EA countries, explaining the weakness of ERPT estimates in the short-run.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by HAL in its series Working Papers with number halshs-00879270.
Date of creation: 25 Oct 2013
Date of revision:
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00879270
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/
Exchange Rate Pass-Through; Inflation; Cointegration;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-11-09 (All new papers)
- NEP-EEC-2013-11-09 (European Economics)
- NEP-IFN-2013-11-09 (International Finance)
- NEP-OPM-2013-11-09 (Open Economy Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992.
"Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jonathan McCarthy, 2007.
"Pass-Through of Exchange Rates and Import Prices to Domestic Inflation in Some Industrialized Economies,"
Eastern Economic Journal,
Eastern Economic Association, vol. 33(4), pages 511-537, Fall.
- J. McCarthy, 1999. "Pass-through of exchange rates and import prices to domestic inflation in some industrialised economies," BIS Working Papers 79, Bank for International Settlements.
- Jonathan McCarthy, 2000. "Pass-through of exchange rates and import prices to domestic inflation in some industrialized economies," Staff Reports 111, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Candelon, Bertrand & Lutkepohl, Helmut, 2001.
"On the reliability of Chow-type tests for parameter constancy in multivariate dynamic models,"
Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 155-160, November.
- Candelon, Bertrand & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 2000. "On the reliability of chow type test for parameter constancy in multivariate dynamic models," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2000,95, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Jose Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2002.
"Exchange rate pass-through into import prices: a macro or micro phenomenon?,"
149, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Jose Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2002. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices: A Macro or Micro Phenomenon?," NBER Working Papers 8934, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Campa, Jose M. & Goldberg, Linda S., 2002. "Exchange rate pass-through into import prices: A macro or micro phenomenon?," IESE Research Papers D/475, IESE Business School.
- Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Hahn, Elke & Sánchez, Marcelo, 2007.
"Exchange rate pass-through in emerging markets,"
Working Paper Series
0739, European Central Bank.
- Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1997.
"Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?,"
Journal of Economic Literature,
American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 1243-1272, September.
- Pinelopi K. Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1996. "Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?," NBER Working Papers 5862, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
- Jeannine Bailliu & Eiji Fujii, 2004.
"Exchange Rate Pass-Through and the Inflation Environment in Industrialized Countries: An Empirical Investigation,"
04-21, Bank of Canada.
- Eiji Fuji & Jeannine Bailliu, 2004. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through and the Inflation Environment in Industrialized Countries: An Empirical Investigation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 135, Society for Computational Economics.
- Hamid Faruqee & Dalia Hakura & Ehsan U. Choudhri, 2002.
"Explaining the Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Different Prices,"
IMF Working Papers
02/224, International Monetary Fund.
- Choudhri, Ehsan U. & Faruqee, Hamid & Hakura, Dalia S., 2005. "Explaining the exchange rate pass-through in different prices," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 349-374, March.
- Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
- José Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2005.
"Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 679-690, November.
- Henrik Hansen & Søren Johansen, 1999. "Some tests for parameter constancy in cointegrated VAR-models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 306-333.
- Hamid Faruqee, 2006. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the Euro Area," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(1), pages 4.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CCSD).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.