Inflation Uncertainty, Output Growth Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Performance: Comparing Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes in Eastern Europe
AbstractIn the late 90's, after severe financial and economic crisis, accompanied by inflation and exchange rate instability, Eastern Europe emerged into two groups of countries with radically contrasting monetary regimes (Currency Boards and Inflation targeting). The task of our study is to compare econometrically the performance of these two regimes in terms of the relationship between inflation, output growth, nominal and real uncertainties from 2000 till now. In other words, we test the hypothesis of non-neutrality of monetary and exchange rate regimes with respect to these connections. In a whole, the empirical results do not allow us to judge which monetary regime is more appropriate and reasonable to assume. EU enlargement is one of the possible explanations for the numbing of the differences and the lack of coherence between the two regimes in terms of inflation, growth and their uncertainties
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Date of creation: 25 Mar 2013
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Inflation; inflation uncertainty; real uncertainty; monetary regimes; Eastern Europe;
Other versions of this item:
- Khan, Muhammad & Kebewar, mazen & Nenovsky, Nikolay, 2013. "Inflation Uncertainty, Output Growth Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Performance: Comparing Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes in Eastern Europe," MPRA Paper 45523, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Khan, Muhammad & Kebewar, Mazen & Nenovsky, Nikolay, 2013. "Inflation Uncertainty, Output Growth Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Performance: Comparing Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes in Eastern Europe," EconStor Preprints 73689, ZBW - German National Library of Economics.
- Muhammad Khan & Mazen Kebewar & Nikolay Nenovsky, 2013. "Inflation Uncertainty, Output Growth Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Performance: Comparing Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes in Eastern Europe," Papers 1303.6192, arXiv.org.
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-04-06 (All new papers)
- NEP-MAC-2013-04-06 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2013-04-06 (Monetary Economics)
- NEP-OPM-2013-04-06 (Open Economy Macroeconomic)
- NEP-TRA-2013-04-06 (Transition Economics)
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