Procyclical International Capital Flows, Debt Overhang And Volatility
AbstractIn this paper, is show how procyclical capital flows originate boom-bust and sunspot episodes in a neoclassical growth model of a small, open economy. All markets are perfect, with the exception of the fact that some upper, endogenous limit is imposed on how much the economy can borrow from foreign creditors, due to potential debtor default. It is shown that the steady state is locally indeterminate when the credit multiplier is larger than some threshold level, whereas saddle-point stability prevails when the credit multiplier is low enough. As a consequence, high levels of the credit multiplier lead to both booms followed by busts and sunspot-driven volatility near the steady state, while, in contrast, low levels ensure monotonic convergence. Compared with saddle-path equilibria, boom-bust and sunspot equilibria are associated with both lower welfare and debt overhang, that is, a crowding-out effect of credit : when the economy is highly leveraged, it uses savings to cut down foreign debt, at the expense of both human and physical investment. Numerical examples show that volatility arises at rather low values of financial development and for debt-to-GDP ratios that fall within the range of available estimates. Finally, the effects of shocks to the world interest rate on output and consumption are amplified and persistent in the debt overhang regime.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by HAL in its series Working Papers with number halshs-00353596.
Date of creation: 01 Dec 2007
Date of revision:
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00353596/en/
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/
international financial markets; endogenous borrowing constraints; small open economy; debt overhang; business cycles; indeterminacy; sunspot equilibria;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jordi Caballe & Xavier Jarque & Elisabetta Michetti, 2004.
"Chaotic Dynamics in Credit Constrained Emerging Economies,"
UFAE and IAE Working Papers
605.04, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
- Caballe, Jordi & Jarque, Xavier & Michetti, Elisabetta, 2006. "Chaotic dynamics in credit constrained emerging economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 1261-1275, August.
- Jordi Caballé & Xavier Jarque & Elisabetta Michetti, 2004. "Chaotic Dynamics in Credit Constrained Emerging Economies," Working Papers 121, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
- Piketty, Thomas & Banerjee, Abhijit & Aghion, Philippe, 1997.
"Dualism and macroeconomic volatility,"
CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange)
- Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Végh, 2005.
"When It Rains, It Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies,"
in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 11-82
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Vegh, 2004. "When it Rains, it Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies," NBER Working Papers 10780, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Vegh, Carlos, 2004. "When it rains, it pours: Procyclical capital flows and macroeconomic policies," MPRA Paper 13883, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Daniel Cohen & Jeffrey Sachs, 1991.
"Growth and External Debt Under Risk of Debt Repudiation,"
in: International Volatility and Economic Growth: The First Ten Years of The International Seminar on Macroeconomics, pages 437-472
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Cohen, Daniel & Sachs, Jeffrey, 1986. "Growth and external debt under risk of debt repudiation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 529-560, June.
- Daniel Cohen & Jeffrey Sachs, 1985. "Growth and External Debt Under Risk of Debt Repudiation," NBER Working Papers 1703, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Benhabib, Jess & Farmer, Roger E.A., 1999. "Indeterminacy and sunspots in macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 6, pages 387-448 Elsevier.
- Marta Aloi & Teresa Lloyd-Braga, 2010.
"National labor markets, international factor mobility and macroeconomic instability,"
Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 431-456, June.
- Aloi, Marta & Lloyd-Braga, Teresa, 2006. "National Labour Markets, International Factor Mobility and Macroeconomic Instability," CEPR Discussion Papers 6015, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Marta Aloi & Teresa Lloyd-Braga, . "National Labor Markets, International Factor Mobility and Macroeconomic Instability," Discussion Papers 09/10, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
- Boyd, John H. & Smith, Bruce D., 1997. "Capital Market Imperfections, International Credit Markets, and Nonconvergence," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 335-364, April.
- Eaton, Jonathan & Gersovitz, Mark, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309, April.
- Kunieda, Takuma, 2008. "Finance and Growth Cycles," MPRA Paper 11340, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Silvio Contessi & Pierangelo De Pace & Johanna Francis, 2009.
"The Cyclical Properties of Disaggregated Capital Flows,"
Fordham Economics Discussion Paper Series
dp2009-05, Fordham University, Department of Economics.
- Contessi, Silvio & De Pace, Pierangelo & Francis, Johanna L., 2013. "The cyclical properties of disaggregated capital flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 528-555.
- Silvio Contessi & Pierangelo DePace & Johanna Francis, 2008. "The cyclical properties of disaggregated capital flows," Working Papers 2008-041, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CCSD).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.