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What Causes Labor-Market Volatility? The Role of Finance and Welfare State Institutions

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  • Thibault Darcillon

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

Abstract

Using fixed effects panel data models on a sample of 15 OECD countries over the period 1970-2007, this article explores the linkages between labor-market volatility, financial development and welfare state institutions. We analyze the interacted impact of financial development on the one hand and welfare state institutions (i.e., overall social spending) on the other hand on volatility of hours worked and volatility of wages. Our results indicate that financial development is associated with higher volatility on labor-markets. Estimates of the marginal effects show that overall social spending increasingly reduces labor-market volatility with the degree of financial development, and more specifically for low-skilled workers through compensation mechanisms. Finally, we control for potential reversed causality by running IV-GMM estimations suggesting that increasing financial development has not threatened the governments' ability to play an active role in cushioning fluctuations on labor markets.

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  • Thibault Darcillon, 2013. "What Causes Labor-Market Volatility? The Role of Finance and Welfare State Institutions," Post-Print halshs-00881198, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00881198
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00881198
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    1. Arup Mitra & Puneet Kumar Shrivastav & Guru Prakash Singh, 2021. "Livelihood Volatility in the Urban Labour Market: Reflections from India’s PLFS Data (2017-18)," IEG Working Papers 416, Institute of Economic Growth.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Labor-market volatility; financial development; social security expenditure; compensation hypothesis; Volatilité du marché du travail; développement financier; dépenses de sécurité sociale; hypothèse de compensation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • I3 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State

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