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Prognosen zur Ost-West-Wanderung nach der deutschen Wiedervereinigung

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  • Sascha Wolff
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    Abstract

    Mit dem Fall der Berliner Mauer im November 1989 und dem sich anschließenden Wiedervereinigungsprozess zwischen dem ehemals zentralwirtschaftlich geprägten Osten und dem marktwirtschaftlich orientierten westlichen Teil Deutschlands traten Befürchtungen über Massenabwanderungen vom Osten in den Westen recht schnell zutage. Die Angst vor einer Überschwemmung des westdeutschen Arbeitsmarktes mit ‚billigen’ Arbeitskräften aus dem östlichen Landesteil kursierte damals nicht nur in den Köpfen vieler Partei- und Gewerkschaftsfunktionäre. In diesem Zusammenhang sind eine ganze Reihe von Studien entstanden, die versuchen, das ost-westdeutsche Wanderungsvolumen zu prognostizieren. Die vorliegende Arbeit will deshalb einen Überblick über diese Untersuchungen und den aktuellen Stand der ökonomischen Forschung auf diesem Gebiet geben sowie die vorgestellten Studien kritisch analysieren, u.a. auch im Hinblick auf ihre ex post Prognosequalität. Dabei lassen sich vornehmlich zwei Kategorien von Wanderungsprognosen unterscheiden. Einerseits existieren Wanderungsprognosen auf der Grundlage von autonomen Simulations- bzw. Erklärungsmodellen. Es gibt jedoch nur sehr wenige dieser Studien, die zudem aus den frühen neunziger Jahren stammen und damit nicht sehr aktuell sind. Andererseits existieren Wanderungsprognosen oder besser Wanderungsannahmen, welche im Rahmen von Bevölkerungsvorausschätzungen, und dabei vielfach mittels Trendfortschreibungen, erstellt wurden. Vor dem Hintergrund sich verfestigender wirtschaftlicher Ungleichgewichte zwischen Ostund Westdeutschland sowie der Durchführung einer eigenen Prognose, welche auf der Basis eines autonomen Erklärungsmodells zukünftig erstellt werden soll, erscheint eine solche Literaturkritik durchaus notwendig und sinnvoll. The fall of the Berlin Wall in November 1989 and the subsequent reunification process between the former centrally planned GDR and the market-oriented Federal Republic of Germany, rapidly raised fears about mass migration movements from the eastern to the western part. The anxiety of an inundation of the western German labour market with cheap labour from the east weighed heavily on the heads of many party and labour union officials. In this context many studies were developed that try to predict the east-west German migration volume. Thus it is the objective of this paper to give an overview over the current state of economic research on migration forecasts in the east-west German context. At this juncture the main studies within this area will be described and critically discussed particularly with regard to their ex post forecast quality. Principally two types of analyses can be distinguished. On the one hand there are migration forecasts which are based on autonomous simulation or explanatory models. However, there are only a small number of these studies. Moreover most of these were developed at the beginning of the 1990s and are thus not very up to date. On the other hand there are migration predictions or better migration assumptions in the east-west German context, which have been developed within the scope of population forecasts and are in many cases based on the method of trend extrapolation. Such a critical review of existing east-west German migration forecasts seems to be requisite and meaningful against the backdrop of solidified economic disparities between east and west Germany. It will also provide a foundation for the development of a new forecast based on a more updated explanatory model.

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    File URL: http://www2.vwl.wiso.uni-goettingen.de/departmentpaper/DB_132.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by University of Goettingen, Department of Economics in its series Departmental Discussion Papers with number 132.

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    Length: 42
    Date of creation: 17 Apr 2007
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    Handle: RePEc:got:vwldps:132

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    Keywords: migration forecasts; east-west German migration; Wanderungsprognosen; ost-westdeutsche Migration;

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    References

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    1. Hans-Werner Sinn & Gebhard Flaig & Martin Werding & Sonja Munz & Nicola Düll & Herbert Hofmann, 2001. "EU-Erweiterung und Arbeitskräftemigration : Wege zu einer schrittweisen Annäherung der Arbeitsmärkte," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 2.
    2. Fertig, Michael & Schmidt, Christoph M., 2000. "Aggregate-Level Migration Studies as a Tool for Forecasting Future Migration Streams," IZA Discussion Papers 183, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    3. Bauer, Thomas K. & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 1999. "Report No. 3: Assessment of Possible Migration Pressure and its Labour Market Impact Following EU Enlargement to Central and Eastern Europe," IZA Research Reports 3, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
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    Cited by:
    1. Nicolas R. Ziebarth & Gert G. Wagner, 2013. "Top-down v. Bottom-up: The Long-Term Impact of Government Ideology and Personal Experience on Values," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1280, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Corinna Ahlfeld, 2009. "The scapegoat of heterogeneity - How fragmentation influences political decisionmaking," Departmental Discussion Papers 143, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    3. Renate Ohr, 2009. "European Monetary Union at Ten: Had the German Maastricht Critics Been Wrong?," Departmental Discussion Papers 141, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.

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