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Inductive Inference: An Axiomatic Approach

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  • Gilboa, I.
  • Schmeidler, D.

Abstract

A predictor is asked to rank eventualities according to their plausibility, based on past cases. We assume that she can form a ranking given any memory that consists of finitely many past cases. Mild consistency requirements on these rankings imply that they have a numerical representation via a matrix assigning numbers to eventuality-case pairs, as follows. Given a memory, each eventuality is ranked according to the sum of the numbers in its row, over cases in memory. The number attached to an eventuality-case pair can be interpreted as the degree of support that the past lends to the plausibility of the eventuality.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Tel Aviv in its series Papers with number 2001-19.

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Length: 56 pages
Date of creation: 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fth:teavfo:2001-19

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Postal: Israel TEL-AVIV UNIVERSITY, THE FOERDER INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH, RAMAT AVIV 69 978 TEL AVIV ISRAEL.
Phone: 972-3-640-9255
Fax: 972-3-640-5815
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Web page: http://econ.tau.ac.il/research/foerder.asp
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Keywords: INFERENCE ; EVALUATION ; EXPECTATIONS;

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