CDOs and Systematic Risk: Why bond ratings are inadequate
AbstractThis paper analyzes the risk properties of typical asset-backed securities (ABS), like CDOs or MBS, relying on a model with both macroeconomic and idiosyncratic components. The examined properties include expected loss, loss given default, and macro factor dependencies. Using a two-dimensional loss decomposition as a new metric, the risk properties of individual ABS tranches can directly be compared to those of corporate bonds, within and across rating classes. By applying Monte Carlo Simulation, we find that the risk properties of ABS differ significantly and systematically from those of straight bonds with the same rating. In particular, loss given default, the sensitivities to macroeconomic risk, and model risk differ greatly between instruments. Our findings have implications for understanding the credit crisis and for policy making. On an economic level, our analysis suggests a new explanation for the observed rating inflation in structured finance markets during the pre-crisis period 2004-2007. On a policy level, our findings call for a termination of the 'one-size-fits-all' approach to the rating methodology for fixed income instruments, requiring an own rating methodology for structured finance instruments.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of Finance, Goethe University Frankfurt am Main in its series Working Paper Series: Finance and Accounting with number 203.
Date of creation: Jun 2009
Date of revision:
credit risk; risk transfer; systematic risk;
Other versions of this item:
- Krahnen, Jan Pieter & Wilde, Christian, 2009. "CDOs and systematic risk: Why bond ratings are inadequate," CFS Working Paper Series 2009/11, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
- G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-07-28 (All new papers)
- NEP-CMP-2009-07-28 (Computational Economics)
- NEP-FMK-2009-07-28 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-RMG-2009-07-28 (Risk Management)
- NEP-UPT-2009-07-28 (Utility Models & Prospect Theory)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Guenter Franke & Jan Pieter Krahnen, 2005.
"Default Risk Sharing Between Banks and Markets: The Contribution of Collateralized Debt Obligations,"
NBER Working Papers
11741, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gunter Franke & Jan Pieter Krahnen, 2007. "Default Risk Sharing between Banks and Markets: The Contribution of Collateralized Debt Obligations," NBER Chapters, in: The Risks of Financial Institutions, pages 603-634 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Günter Franke & Jan Pieter Krahnen, 2005. "Default risk sharing between banks and markets: the contribution of collateralized debt obligations," CoFE Discussion Paper, Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz 05-04, Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz.
- Franke, Günter & Krahnen, Jan Pieter, 2005. "Default risk sharing between banks and markets: The contribution of collateralized debt obligations," CFS Working Paper Series 2005/06, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Peter M. DeMarzo, 2005. "The Pooling and Tranching of Securities: A Model of Informed Intermediation," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(1), pages 1-35.
- Günter Franke & Jan P. Krahnen, 2009.
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Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 10(4), pages 335-366, November.
- Mählmann, Thomas, 2013. "Hedge funds, CDOs and the financial crisis: An empirical investigation of the “Magnetar trade”," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 537-548.
- Lützenkirchen, Kristina & Rösch, Daniel & Scheule, Harald, 2013. "Ratings based capital adequacy for securitizations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5236-5247.
- Freixas, Xavier & Laux, Christian, 2011. "Disclosure, transparency, and market discipline," CFS Working Paper Series 2011/11, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
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