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Instabile Finanzmärkte

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  • Franke, Günter
  • Krahnen, Jan Pieter

Abstract

Die Vorstellung selbst-stabilisierender, zum Gleichgewicht tendierender Finanzmärkte, lange Zeit als Selbstverständlichkeit angesehen, ist durch die aktuelle Banken- und Kreditkrise in Frage gestellt. Trotz ausgefeilten Risikomanagements der Banken und einer an Basel II orientierten Aufsicht ist es in den Jahren 2007-2009 zu einem Zusammenbruch des Interbankenmarktes und weiter Teile der Anleihemärkte gekommen. Die hierdurch erzwungenen massiven Staatsinterventionen zur Bankenrettung sind ohne Beispiel in der modernen Wirtschaftsgeschichte. In diesem Essay suchen wir nach Ansatzpunkten einer Erklärung für die Instabilität der Finanzmärkte. Als zentrale Krisenursache sehen wir Schwächen der Informationsarchitektur, deren Aufgabe darin besteht, glaubwürdige Information für Investoren bereitzustellen. Drei Determinanten der Instabilität werden herausgestellt, erstens die Nutzung von Schuldtiteln verbunden mit hohen Verschuldungsgraden, zweitens die Handelbarkeit von Titeln verbunden mit erhöhter Risikoübernahme, sowie drittens die zunehmende Komplexität von Finanzprodukten und Finanznetzwerken verbunden mit einer Homogenisierung der Aktiva- und Risikostrukturen von Finanzinstituten. Alle drei Faktoren verstärken die Anfälligkeit des Finanzsystems und zugleich die Bedeutung der Informationsarchitektur. Hieraus lassen sich Anforderungen an eine sinnvolle Reform der Regulierung ableiten. Neben den Anreizproblemen, die Gegenstand einer weiteren Arbeit sind (Franke/Krahnen 2009), diskutieren wir hier vier Kernthemen: glaubwürdige Informationen, makroprudentielle Aufsicht, robuste Eigenkapitalstandards und eine notwendige Risikobegrenzung auf Derivatemärkten. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Center for Financial Studies (CFS) in its series CFS Working Paper Series with number 2009/13.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfswop:200913

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Keywords: Financial Crisis; Information; Regulation; Banking; Bond Ratings; Capital Markets;

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References

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  1. Douglas W. Diamond & Raghuram G. Rajan, . "Liquidity Risk, Liquidity Creation and Financial Fragility: A Theory of Banking," CRSP working papers 476, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
  2. Franke, Günter & Krahnen, Jan Pieter, 2005. "Default risk sharing between banks and markets: The contribution of collateralized debt obligations," CFS Working Paper Series 2005/06, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  3. Townsend, Robert M., 1979. "Optimal contracts and competitive markets with costly state verification," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 265-293, October.
  4. Antje Brunner & Jan Pieter Krahnen, 2008. "Multiple Lenders and Corporate Distress: Evidence on Debt Restructuring," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(2), pages 415-442.
  5. Franke, Günter & Krahnen, Jan Pieter, 2008. "The future of securitization," CFS Working Paper Series 2008/31, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  6. Hyman P. Minsky, 1992. "The Financial Instability Hypothesis," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_74, Levy Economics Institute, The.
  7. Günter Franke & Markus Herrmann & Thomas Weber, 2007. "Information asymmetries and securitization design," CoFE Discussion Paper 07-10, Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz.
  8. Diamond, Douglas W, 1984. "Financial Intermediation and Delegated Monitoring," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(3), pages 393-414, July.
  9. Krahnen, Jan Pieter & Wilde, Christian, 2009. "CDOs and systematic risk: Why bond ratings are inadequate," CFS Working Paper Series 2009/11, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  10. Krahnen, Jan Pieter & Wilde, Christian, 2008. "Risk transfer with CDOs," CFS Working Paper Series 2008/15, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  11. Jensen, Michael C, 1986. "Agency Costs of Free Cash Flow, Corporate Finance, and Takeovers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(2), pages 323-29, May.
  12. Krahnen, Jan Pieter, 2005. "Der Handel von Kreditrisiken: Eine neue Dimension des Kapitalmarktes," CFS Working Paper Series 2005/05, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  13. Ricardo J. Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2007. "Collective Risk Management in a Flight to Quality Episode," NBER Working Papers 12896, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Boot, Arnoud W. A., 2000. "Relationship Banking: What Do We Know?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 7-25, January.
  15. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1999. "Modeling Term Structures of Defaultable Bonds," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 687-720.
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Cited by:
  1. Christoph Zeitler & Bernd Rudolph & Christian Kirchner & Christoph Kaserer & Markus Ferber, 2010. "Regulierung und Aufsicht der Banken: Brauchen wir Basel III?," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 63(03), pages 03-20, 02.
  2. Jan Priewe, 2010. "What Went Wrong? Alternative interpretations of the global financial crisis," Competence Centre on Money, Trade, Finance and Development 1002, Hochschule fuer Technik und Wirtschaft, Berlin.
  3. Gunther Tichy, 2010. "War die Finanzkrise vorhersehbar?," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 11(4), pages 356-382, November.

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