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An intertemporal, multi-region general equilibrium model of agricultural trade liberalization in the South Mediterranean NICs, Turkey, and the European Union

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  • Bayar, Ali.
  • Diao, Xinshen
  • Yeldan, A. Erinc

Abstract

With the aid of an intertemporal, multi-region general equilibrium model, the authors study issues of agricultural trade liberalization, growth and capital accumulation in the context of a world economy moving towards a multi-polar structure. They specifically focus on Turkey, the European Union, the Middle East, and the Economies in Transition; and study alternative scenarios of formation of customs unions and increased trade orientation. The model is based on intertemporal general equilibrium theory with Ramsey-type dynamics. The world economy is fully endogenized within a 9-region specification, with Turkey, EU, Middle East and the Transition Economies constituting as one of the indigenous regions. A key feature of the model is its explicit recognition of both the commodity and foreign capital flows across regions in an endogenous setting, and its explicit portrayal of the out-of-steady state dynamics under an intertemporal optimization framework. They explore the short- versus the long-run economic impacts of alternative trade and investment policies on agricultural production, foreign trade, resource allocation, accumulation, consumer welfare, and income distribution in the regions of analyis. The results reveal significant gains from increased bilateral trade between the identified regions, and further underscore the crucial importance of financing commodity trade deficits in sustaining the accumulation patterns.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) in its series TMD discussion papers with number 56.

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Date of creation: 2000
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Handle: RePEc:fpr:tmddps:56

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Keywords: Economics Models. ; Trade liberalization. ; Foreign trade Mathematical models. ; Agricultural trade. ; TMD ;

References

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  1. Mercenier, J. & Da Conceicao Sampaio De Souza, M., 1991. "Structural Adjustment And Growth In A Highy Indebted Market Economy: Brazil," Cahiers de recherche 9103, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  2. Schiff, Maurice & Winters, L Alan, 1998. "Dynamics and Politics in Regional Integration Arrangements: An Introduction," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 12(2), pages 177-95, May.
  3. Patrick J. Kehoe & Timothy J. Kehoe, 1994. "Capturing NAFTA's impact with applied general equilibrium models," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr, pages 17-34.
  4. De Santis, Roberto A., 1998. "The impact of a Customs Union with the EU on internal migration in Turkey under the two alternative Harris-Todaro and wage curve settings," Kiel Working Papers 867, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  5. Bhagwati, Jagdish & Greenaway, David & Panagariya, Arvind, 1998. "Trading Preferentially: Theory and Policy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1128-48, July.
  6. Diao, Xinshen & Roe, Terry L. & Yeldan, A. Erinc, 1998. "How Fiscal (Mis)-Management May Impede Trade Reform: Lessons From an Intertemporal, Multi-Sector General Equilibrium Model for Turkey," Bulletins 7459, University of Minnesota, Economic Development Center.
  7. Diao, Xinshen & Somwaru, Agapi, 2000. "An Inquiry on General Equilibrium Effects of MERCOSUR--An Intertemporal World Model," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 557-588, September.
  8. Bagwell, Kyle & Staiger, Robert W, 1998. "Will Preferential Agreements Undermine the Multilateral Trading System?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1162-82, July.
  9. Mercenier, Jean & Yeldan, Erinc, 1997. "On Turkey's trade policy: Is a customs union with Europe enough?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 871-880, April.
  10. Roberto A. De Santis, 2003. "The Impact of a Customs Union with the European Union on Internal Migration in Turkey," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(2), pages 349-372.
  11. Fernandez, Raquel & Portes, Jonathan, 1998. "Returns to Regionalism: An Analysis of Nontraditional Gains from Regional Trade Agreements," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 12(2), pages 197-220, May.
  12. Harrison, Glenn W. & Rutherford, Thomas F. & Tarr, David G., 1996. "Economic implications for Turkey of a customs union with the European Union," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1599, The World Bank.
  13. Meilke, Karl D. & McClatchy, Don & de Gorter, Harry, 1995. "Challenges In Quantitative Economic Analysis In Support Of Multilateral Trade Negotiations," Working Papers 51215, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
  14. Meilke, Karl D. & McClatchy, Don & Gorter, Harry de, 1996. "Challenges in quantitative economic analysis in support of multilateral trade negotiations," Agricultural Economics: The Journal of the International Association of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 14(3), August.
  15. A. T. Blake & A. J. Rayner & G. V. Reed, 1999. "A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of Agricultural Liberalisation: The Uruguay Round and Common Agricultural Policy Reform," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(3), pages 400-424.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Konstadinos Mattas & George Baourakis & Konstantinos Galanopoulos & Fatima El hadad Gauthier & Etienne Montaigne & Michel Petit & Hilel HAMADACHE & Ibrahim Soliman & Ahmed Mashhour & Mohamed Gaber & A, 2012. "A review of the national and international agro-food policies and institutions in the Mediterranean Region [Synthesis]," Working Papers 180949, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, France.
  2. Kavallari, Aikaterini & Schmitz, P. Michael, 2007. "An Empirical Assessment of Agricultural Trade Policies in the Mediterranean Basin - Regional Effects on the EU Member States," 103rd Seminar, April 23-25, 2007, Barcelona, Spain 9395, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  3. Kavallari, Aikaterini & Schmitz, P. Michael, 2010. "Preference erosion effects on the agricultural sector of the EU’s Mediterranean Partner Countries," Agricultural Economics Review, Greek Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 11(2), June.

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