Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Short Run Bond Risk Premia

Contents:

Author Info

  • Philippe Mueller

    ()

  • Andrea Vedolin

    ()

  • Hao Zhou

    ()

Abstract

In the short-run, bond risk premia exhibit pronounced spikes around major economic and financial crises. In contrast, long-term bond risk premia feature cyclical swings. We empirically examine the predictability of the market variance risk premium—a proxy of economic uncertainty—for bond risk premia and we show the strong predictive power for the one month horizon that almost entirely disappears for horizons above one year. The variance risk premium is largely orthogonal to well-established bond return predictors—forward rates, jumps, yield curve factors, and macro variables. We rationalize our empirical findings in an equilibrium model of uncertainty about consumption and inflation which is coupled with recursive preferences. We show that the model can quantitatively explain the levels of bond and variance risk premia as well as the predictive power of the variance risk premium while jointly matching salient features of other asset prices.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.lse.ac.uk/fmg/workingPapers/discussionPapers/fmgdps/dp686.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Financial Markets Group in its series FMG Discussion Papers with number dp686.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Jun 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fmg:fmgdps:dp686

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.lse.ac.uk/fmg/

Related research

Keywords:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Bekaert, Geert & Hoerova, Marie & Lo Duca, Marco, 2013. "Risk, uncertainty and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(7), pages 771-788.
  2. Wei Xiong & Hongjun Yan & Review Financial, 2007. "Heterogeneous Expectations and Bond Markets," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2614, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Jun 2009.
  3. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, 05.
  4. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2001. "Stock Return Predictability: Is it There?," NBER Working Papers 8207, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Vayanos, Dimitri & Vila, Jean-Luc, 2009. "A Preferred-Habitat Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 7547, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Lieven Baele & Geert Bekaert & Koen Inghelbrecht, 2009. "The Determinants of Stock and Bond Return Comovements," NBER Working Papers 15260, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Benigno, Pierpaolo & Ricci, Luca Antonio & Surico, Paolo, 2010. "Unemployment and Productivity in the Long Run: the Role of Macroeconomic Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 8014, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan Francisco, 2010. "Macroeconomics and Volatility: Data, Models, and Estimation," CEPR Discussion Papers 8169, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Taeyoung Doh, 2008. "Long Run Risks in the Term Structure of Interest Rates : Estimation," 2008 Meeting Papers 137, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  10. Geert Bekaert & Eric Engstrom, 2009. "Asset Return Dynamics under Bad Environment Good Environment Fundamentals," NBER Working Papers 15222, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Xavier Gabaix, 2012. "Variable Rare Disasters: An Exactly Solved Framework for Ten Puzzles in Macro-Finance," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 127(2), pages 645-700.
  12. Koijen, Ralph & Lustig, Hanno & van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn, 2012. "The Cross-Section and Time-Series of Stock and Bond Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 9024, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Nicholas Bloom & Max Floetotto & Nir Jaimovich & Itay Saporta-Eksten & Stephen J. Terry, 2014. "Really Uncertain Business Cycles," Working Papers 14-18, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Arash, Aloosh, 2011. "Variance Risk Premium Differentials and Foreign Exchange Returns," MPRA Paper 40829, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Aug 2012.
  2. Bruno Feunou & Jean-Sébastien Fontaine & Abderrahim Taamouti & Roméo Tedongap, 2012. "Risk Premium, Variance Premium and the Maturity Structure of Uncertainty," Working Papers 12-11, Bank of Canada.
  3. Tim Bollerslev & James Marrone & Lai Xu & Hao Zhou, 2011. "Stock return predictability and variance risk premia: statistical inference and international evidence," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-52, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Philippe Mueller & Andrea Vedolin & Yu-min Yen, 2012. "Bond Variance Risk Premia," FMG Discussion Papers dp699, Financial Markets Group.
  5. Dahlquist, Magnus & Hasseltoft, Henrik, 2013. "International Bond Risk Premia," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 17-32.
  6. Turan G. Bali & Hao Zhou, 2011. "Risk, uncertainty, and expected returns," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-45, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Kees E. Bouwman & Elvira Sojli & Wing Wah Tham, 2012. "Aggregate Stock Market Illiquidity and Bond Risk Premia," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-140/IV/DSF46, Tinbergen Institute.
  8. Jianjun Miao & Bin Wei & Hao Zhou, 2012. "Ambiguity Aversion and Variance Premium," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2012-009, Boston University - Department of Economics.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fmg:fmgdps:dp686. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (The FMG Administration).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.