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Asset price dynamics when behavioural heterogeneity varies

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  • Domenico Colucci

    ()
    (Dipartimento di Matematica per le Decisioni)

  • Vincenzo Valori

    ()
    (Dipartimento di Matematica per le Decisioni)

Abstract

We build a model in which asset prices are expectationally driven and agents forecast future prices hinging on a combination of fundamental value, trend and inertia. The model has a unique steady state and we investigate its stability. In particular the amount of behavioural heterogeneity in the model is given by the number of intermediaries actually operating in the market: we are concerned with the effects that changing such number produces on the steady state in terms of stability. Assuming that the set of relevant intermediaries is sampled randomly we discuss the probability of having stability as a function of the market's parameters and the number of such agents. Our simulations show that stability in the multi-agent setting does not require that conditions for stability in the representative agent case be met for every individual; so stability can arise even if some of the agents would not be compatible with it if they were the only ones operating in the market. The same goes for instability. Further, we find that stabilising (or destabilising) effects of heterogeneity are not uniform across the market's essential characteristics, as captured by a given structural parameter: in fact we can identify a parametric region in which heterogeneity is stabilising and another in which it is destabilising.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa in its series Working Papers - Mathematical Economics with number 2006-01.

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Length: 31
Date of creation: Nov 2006
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published as Domenico Colucci and Vincenzo Valori, 2008. "Asset Price Dynamics When Behavioural Heterogeneity Varies," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 3-20.
Handle: RePEc:flo:wpaper:2006-01

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Keywords: heterogeneous agents; expectations; stock market; behavioural finance; bounded rationality; middlemen.;

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References

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  1. John Rust & George Hall, 2003. "Middlemen versus Market Makers: A Theory of Competitive Exchange," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(2), pages 353-403, April.
  2. Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2002. "Towards an Explanation of Household Portfolio Choice Heterogeneity: Nonfinancial Income and Participation Cost Structures," NBER Working Papers 8884, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Benassy-Quere, Agnes & Larribeau, Sophie & MacDonald, Ronald, 2003. "Models of exchange rate expectations: how much heterogeneity?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 113-136, April.
  4. Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H. & Wagener, F.O.O., 2002. "Evolutionary dynamics in markets with many trader types," CeNDEF Working Papers 02-10, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  5. Cars Hommes & Joep Sonnemans & Jan Tuinstra & Henk van de Velden, 2004. "Coordination of Expectations in Asset Pricing Experiments," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 119, Netherlands Central Bank.
  6. Elliott, Graham & Ito, Takatoshi, 1999. "Heterogeneous expectations and tests of efficiency in the yen/dollar forward exchange rate market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 435-456, April.
  7. Egenter, E. & Lux, T. & Stauffer, D., 1999. "Finite-size effects in Monte Carlo simulations of two stock market models," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 268(1), pages 250-256.
  8. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2006. "Inertia of Forward-Looking Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 152-157, May.
  9. William A. Branch, 2004. "The Theory of Rationally Heterogeneous Expectations: Evidence from Survey Data on Inflation Expectations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(497), pages 592-621, 07.
  10. Beja, Avraham & Goldman, M Barry, 1980. " On the Dynamic Behavior of Prices in Disequilibrium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(2), pages 235-48, May.
  11. Fingleton, John, 1997. "Competition among Middlemen When Buyers and Sellers Can Trade Directly," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(4), pages 405-27, December.
  12. Day, R. & Huang, W., 1988. "Bulls, Bears And Market Sheep," Papers m8822, Southern California - Department of Economics.
  13. Alok Johri & John Leach, 2002. "Middlemen and the Allocation of Heterogeneous Goods," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 43(2), pages 347-362, May.
  14. Domenico Colucci & Vincenzo Valori, 2005. "Ways of learning in a simple economic setting: a comparison," Working Papers - Mathematical Economics 2005-01, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
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Cited by:
  1. Colucci, Domenico & Valori, Vincenzo, 2011. "Adaptive expectations and cobweb phenomena: Does heterogeneity matter?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 1307-1321, August.
  2. Domenico Colucci & Vincenzo Valori, 2012. "Bounded rationality and parameters’ uncertainty in a simple monetary policy model," Working Papers - Mathematical Economics 2012-03, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.

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