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Implications of Increasing College Attainment for Aging in General Equilibrium

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  • Juan Carlos Conesa
  • Timothy J. Kehoe
  • Vegard Nygaard
  • Gajendran Raveendranathan

Abstract

We develop and calibrate an overlapping generations general equilibrium model of the U.S. economy with heterogeneous consumers who face idiosyncratic earnings and health risk to study the implications of exogenous trends in increasing college attainment, decreasing fertility, and increasing longevity between 2005 and 2100. While all three trends contribute to a higher old age dependency ratio, increasing college attainment has different macroeconomic implications because it increases labor productivity. Decreasing fertility and increasing longevity require the government to increase the average labor tax rate from 32.0 to 44.4 percent. Increasing college attainment lowers the required tax increase by 10.1 percentage points. The required tax increase is higher under general equilibrium than in a small open economy with a constant interest rate because the reduction in the interest rate lowers capital income tax revenues.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Carlos Conesa & Timothy J. Kehoe & Vegard Nygaard & Gajendran Raveendranathan, 2019. "Implications of Increasing College Attainment for Aging in General Equilibrium," Staff Report 583, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmsr:583
    DOI: 10.21034/sr.583
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    Cited by:

    1. Heer, Burkhard & Polito, Vito & Wickens, Michael R., 2020. "Population aging, social security and fiscal limits," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    2. John Bailey Jones & Yue Li, 2023. "Social Security Reform with Heterogeneous Mortality," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 48, pages 320-344, April.
    3. Nygaard, Vegard M. & Sørensen, Bent E. & Wang, Fan, 2022. "Optimal allocations to heterogeneous agents with an application to stimulus checks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    4. Thomas F. Cooley & Espen Henriksen & Charlie Nusbaum, 2019. "Demographic Obstacles to European Growth," NBER Working Papers 26503, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Elena Falcettoni & Vegard M. Nygaard, 2023. "A Comparison Of Living Standards Across The United States Of America," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(2), pages 511-542, May.
    6. Elena Falcettoni & Vegard Nygaard, 2020. "A Comparison of Living Standards Across the States of America," FEDS Notes 2020-05-28-1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Vegard M. Nygaard & Gajendran Raveendranathan, 2021. "The impact of U.S. employer-sponsored insurance in the 20th century," Department of Economics Working Papers 2021-11, McMaster University.
    8. Burkhard Heer & Vito Polito & Mike Wickens, 2023. "Pension Systems (Un)sustainability and Fiscal Constraints: A Comparative Analysis," Working Papers 2023014, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
    9. John Bailey Jones & Yue Li, 2023. "Social Security Reform with Heterogeneous Mortality," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 48, pages 320-344, April.
    10. Bairoliya, Neha & İmrohoroğlu, Ayşe, 2023. "Macroeconomic consequences of stay-at-home policies during the COVID-19 pandemic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Taxation; General equilibrium; Health care; Aging; College attainment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • I13 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Insurance, Public and Private
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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