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Population growth and asset prices

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  • Peter S. Yoo
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    Abstract

    This paper explores the theoretical relationship between the population growth rate and asset prices implied by an overlapping-generations model. The model shows that changes in a population's age distribution affect asset prices but such changes generate low frequency movements in asset prices. The model also shows that the treatment of expectations matter; a small response of individuals to changes in asset prices has large implications for the path of asset prices. Finally, the model shows that incorporating a supply of assets by interpreting an asset as a claim on physical capital diminishes the magnitude of the relationship but does not change the sign or timing of the relationship between a population's age distribution and asset prices.

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    File URL: http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/more/1997-016
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    File URL: http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/1997/97-016.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 1997-016.

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    Date of creation: 1997
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    Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:1997-016

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    Related research

    Keywords: Demography ; Population ; Prices;

    References

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    1. N. Gregory Mankiw & David N. Weil, 1988. "The Baby Boom, The Baby Bust, and the Housing Market," NBER Working Papers 2794, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Bakshi, Gurdip S & Chen, Zhiwu, 1994. "Baby Boom, Population Aging, and Capital Markets," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(2), pages 165-202, April.
    3. Sylvester J. Schieber & John B. Shoven, 1994. "The Consequences of Population Aging on Private Pension Fund Saving and Asset Markets," NBER Working Papers 4665, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:
    1. John Janssen, 2002. "Long-term fiscal projections and their relationship with the intertemporal budget constraint: An application to New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/05, New Zealand Treasury.

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