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The Consequences of Population Aging on Private Pension Fund Saving and Asset Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Sylvester J. Schieber
  • John B. Shoven

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of the aging demographic structure of the U.S. on its funded private pension system. A 75-year outlook is produced for the pension system corresponding to the 75-year forecast of the Social Security system. The primary result is that the pension system will cease being a source of national saving in the third decade of the next century. The paper speculates about the impact this may have on asset prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Sylvester J. Schieber & John B. Shoven, 1994. "The Consequences of Population Aging on Private Pension Fund Saving and Asset Markets," NBER Working Papers 4665, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4665
    Note: AG PE
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Robert Holzmann, 2002. "Can Investments in Emerging Markets Help to Solve the Ageing Problem?," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 1(2), pages 215-241, September.
    2. Tatiana Ermolieva & Landis Mackellar & Anders Westlund, 2001. "On Long-term Forecasting of Social Security: A Robustness Analysis," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 33-48, February.
    3. Olivia S. Mitchell & James F. Moore, "undated". "Retirement Wealth Accumulation and Decumulation: New Developments and Outstanding Opportunities," Pension Research Council Working Papers 97-8, Wharton School Pension Research Council, University of Pennsylvania.
    4. T.Y. Ermolieva & F.L. MacKellar & A. Westlund, 1999. "Robustness to Stochastic Shocks of Alternative Old-Age Pension Arrangements: Macroeconomic Stability," Working Papers ir99024, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    5. Goecke, Oskar, 2011. "Sparprozesse mit kollektivem Risikoausgleich," Forschung am ivwKöln 1/2011, Technische Hochschule Köln – University of Applied Sciences, Institute for Insurance Studies.
    6. Goyal, Amit, 2004. "Demographics, Stock Market Flows, and Stock Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(1), pages 115-142, March.
    7. Walter M. Cadette, "undated". "Safeguarding Social Security, The Challenge of Financing the Baby Boom's Retirement," Economics Public Policy Brief Archive ppb_34, Levy Economics Institute.
    8. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1995. "Economic Implications of Changing Share Ownership," NBER Working Papers 5141, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. F.L. MacKellar & H. Reisen, 1998. "International Diversification of Pension Assets Is No Panacea for Population Aging," Working Papers ir98034, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    10. C. Alan Garner, 1997. "Social Security privatization: balancing efficiency and fairness," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 82(Q III), pages 21-36.
    11. Feldstein, Martin & Liebman, Jeffrey B., 2002. "Social security," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 32, pages 2245-2324, Elsevier.
    12. F.L. MacKellar & T.Y. Ermolieva, 1999. "The IIASA Social Security Reform Project Multiregional Economic-Demographic Growth Model: Policy Background and Algebraic Structure," Working Papers ir99007, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    13. Christian Helmenstein & Alexia Prskawetz & Yuri Yegorov, 2002. "Wealth and cohort size: stock market boom or bust ahead?," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2002-051, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    14. Henri Sterdyniak & Gaël Dupont & Alexis Dantec, 1999. "Les retraites en France : que faire ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 68(1), pages 19-81.
    15. Douglas W. Elmendorf & Louise Sheiner, 2000. "Should America save for its old age? Population aging, national saving, and fiscal policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. A. Westlund & T.Y. Ermolieva & F.L. MacKellar, 1999. "Analysis and Forecasting of Social Security: A Study of Robustness," Working Papers ir99004, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    17. James M. Poterba, 1998. "Population Age Structure and Asset Returns: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 6774, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. E Philip Davis, 2005. "Challenges Posed by Ageing to Financial and Monetary Stability*," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 30(4), pages 542-564, October.
    19. Peter S. Yoo, 1997. "Population growth and asset prices," Working Papers 1997-016, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    20. F.L. MacKellar & T.Y. Ermolieva & H. Reisen, 1999. "Globalization, Social Security, and International Transfers," Working Papers ir99056, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

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