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The Consequences of Population Aging on Private Pension Fund Saving and Asset Markets

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Author Info
Sylvester J. Schieber
John B. Shoven
Abstract

This paper examines the impact of the aging demographic structure of the U.S. on its funded private pension system. A 75-year outlook is produced for the pension system corresponding to the 75-year forecast of the Social Security system. The primary result is that the pension system will cease being a source of national saving in the third decade of the next century. The paper speculates about the impact this may have on asset prices.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 4665.

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Date of creation: Mar 1994
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4665

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped
G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Pension Funds; Other Private Financial Institutions

Cited by:
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  1. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1996. "Economic Implications of Changing Share Ownership," NBER Working Papers 5141, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. James M. Poterba, 1998. "Population Age Structure and Asset Returns: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 6774, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. F.L. MacKellar & H. Reisen, 1998. "International Diversification of Pension Assets Is No Panacea for Population Aging," Working Papers ir98034, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  4. T.Y. Ermolieva & F.L. MacKellar & A. Westlund, 1999. "Robustness to Stochastic Shocks of Alternative Old-Age Pension Arrangements: Macroeconomic Stability," Working Papers ir99024, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  5. Olivia S. Mitchell & James F. Moore, 1997. "Retirement Wealth Accumulation and Decumulation: New Developments and Outstanding Opportunities," NBER Working Papers 6178, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. F.L. MacKellar & T.Y. Ermolieva & H. Reisen, 1999. "Globalization, Social Security, and International Transfers," Working Papers ir99056, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  7. Peter S. Yoo, 1997. "Population growth and asset prices," Working Papers 1997-016, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  8. Walter M. Cadette, . "Safeguarding Social Security, The Challenge of Financing the Baby Boom's Retirement," Economics Public Policy Brief Archive 34, Levy Economics Institute, The. [Downloadable!]
  9. F.L. MacKellar & T.Y. Ermolieva, 1999. "The IIASA Social Security Reform Project Multiregional Economic-Demographic Growth Model: Policy Background and Algebraic Structure," Working Papers ir99007, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  10. A. Westlund & T.Y. Ermolieva & F.L. MacKellar, 1999. "Analysis and Forecasting of Social Security: A Study of Robustness," Working Papers ir99004, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  11. Douglas W. Elmendorf & Louise M. Sheiner, 2000. "Should America save for its old age? Population aging, national saving, and fiscal policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  12. Christian Helmenstein & Alexia Prskawetz & Yuri Yegorov, 2002. "Wealth and cohort size: stock market boom or bust ahead?," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2002-051, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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