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The Consequences of Population Aging on Private Pension Fund Saving and Asset Markets

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  • Sylvester J. Schieber
  • John B. Shoven
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    Abstract

    This paper examines the impact of the aging demographic structure of the U.S. on its funded private pension system. A 75-year outlook is produced for the pension system corresponding to the 75-year forecast of the Social Security system. The primary result is that the pension system will cease being a source of national saving in the third decade of the next century. The paper speculates about the impact this may have on asset prices.

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    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w4665.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 4665.

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    Date of creation: Mar 1994
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    Publication status: published as The Economic Effects of Aging in the United States and Japan, Michael D. Hurd, Naohiro Yashiro, eds., pp. 111-130, (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1997).
    Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4665

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    Cited by:
    1. Holzmann, Robert, 2000. "Can investments in emerging markets help to solve the aging problem ?," Social Protection Discussion Papers 23070, The World Bank.
    2. F.L. MacKellar & H. Reisen, 1998. "International Diversification of Pension Assets Is No Panacea for Population Aging," Working Papers ir98034, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    3. Christian Helmenstein & Alexia Prskawetz & Yuri Yegorov, 2002. "Wealth and cohort size: stock market boom or bust ahead?," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2002-051, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    4. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1995. "Economic Implications of Changing Share Ownership," NBER Working Papers 5141, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Peter S. Yoo, 1997. "Population growth and asset prices," Working Papers 1997-016, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    6. F.L. MacKellar & T.Y. Ermolieva & H. Reisen, 1999. "Globalization, Social Security, and International Transfers," Working Papers ir99056, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    7. F.L. MacKellar & T.Y. Ermolieva, 1999. "The IIASA Social Security Reform Project Multiregional Economic-Demographic Growth Model: Policy Background and Algebraic Structure," Working Papers ir99007, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    8. Douglas W. Elmendorf & Louise M. Sheiner, 2000. "Should America save for its old age? Population aging, national saving, and fiscal policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Tatiana Ermolieva & Landis Mackellar & Anders Westlund, 2001. "On Long-term Forecasting of Social Security: A Robustness Analysis," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 33-48, February.
    10. Olivia S. Mitchell & James F. Moore, 1997. "Retirement Wealth Accumulation and Decumulation: New Developments and Outstanding Opportunities," NBER Working Papers 6178, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. A. Westlund & T.Y. Ermolieva & F.L. MacKellar, 1999. "Analysis and Forecasting of Social Security: A Study of Robustness," Working Papers ir99004, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    12. T.Y. Ermolieva & F.L. MacKellar & A. Westlund, 1999. "Robustness to Stochastic Shocks of Alternative Old-Age Pension Arrangements: Macroeconomic Stability," Working Papers ir99024, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    13. James M. Poterba, 1998. "Population Age Structure and Asset Returns: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 6774, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Goyal, Amit, 2004. "Demographics, Stock Market Flows, and Stock Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(01), pages 115-142, March.
    15. E Philip Davis, 2005. "Challenges Posed by Ageing to Financial and Monetary Stability*," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 30(4), pages 542-564, October.

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