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The Impact of the Current Expected Credit Loss Standard (CECL) on the Timing and Comparability of Reserves

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Abstract

The new forward-looking credit loss provisioning standard, CECL, is intended to promote proactive provisioning as loan loss reserves can be conditioned on expectations of the economic cycle. We study the degree to which one modeling decision?expectations about the path of future house prices ? affects the size and timing of provisions for first-lien residential mortgage portfolios. While we find that provisions are generally less pro-cyclical compared to the current incurred loss standard, CECL may complicate the comparability of provisions across banks and time. Market participants will need to disentangle the degree to which variation in provisions across firms is driven by underlying risk versus differences in modeling assumptions.

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  • Sarah Chae & Robert F. Sarama & Cindy M. Vojtech & James Z. Wang, 2018. "The Impact of the Current Expected Credit Loss Standard (CECL) on the Timing and Comparability of Reserves," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-020, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2018-20
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2018.020
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    Cited by:

    1. Fatouh, Mahmoud & Giansante, Simone, 2023. "The cyclicality of bank credit losses and capital ratios under expected loss model," Bank of England working papers 1013, Bank of England.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Accounting rule change; CECL; Mortgage loans; Model risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • M40 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - General
    • M48 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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