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Habit persistence, non-separability between consumption and leisure, or rule-of thumb consumers: which accounts for the predictability of consumption growth?

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Author Info

  • Michael T. Kiley

Abstract

Consumption growth is predictable, a basic violation of the permanent-income hypothesis. This paper examines three possible explanations: rule-of-thumb behavior, in which households allow consumption to track per-period income flows rather than permanent income; habit persistence; and non-separability in preferences over consumption and leisure. The data appear most consistent with non-separable preferences over consumption and leisure.

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File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2007/200748/200748abs.html
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File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2007/200748/200748pap.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 2007-48.

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Date of creation: 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2007-48

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Related research

Keywords: Consumption (Economics) ; Consumer behavior;

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References

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  1. Thomas D. Tallarini, Jr. & Harold H. Zhang, 2005. "External Habit and the Cyclicality of Expected Stock Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(3), pages 1023-1048, May.
  2. Carroll Christopher Dixon, 2001. "Death to the Log-Linearized Consumption Euler Equation! (And Very Poor Health to the Second-Order Approximation)," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-38, April.
  3. Reis, Ricardo, 2005. "Inattentive Consumers," CEPR Discussion Papers 5053, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1991. "Permanent Income, Current Income, and Consumption," NBER Working Papers 2436, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Constantinides, George M, 1990. "Habit Formation: A Resolution of the Equity Premium Puzzle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(3), pages 519-43, June.
  6. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1989. "Consumption, Income, and Interest Rates: Reinterpreting the Time Series Evidence," NBER Working Papers 2924, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Morten Ravn & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé & Mart�n Uribe, 2006. "Deep Habits," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(1), pages 195-218.
  8. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 2001. "Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy," Working Paper 0107, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  9. Cochrane, John H. & Campbell, John, 1999. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Scholarly Articles 3119444, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  10. Cochrane, John H, 1994. "Permanent and Transitory Components of GNP and Stock Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(1), pages 241-65, February.
  11. Campbell, John Y & Deaton, Angus, 1989. "Why Is Consumption So Smooth?," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(3), pages 357-73, July.
  12. repec:fth:harver:1435 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999. "Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Glenn Rudebusch & Eric Swanson, 2008. "The bond premium in a DSGE model with long-run real and nominal risks," Working Paper Series 2008-31, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  2. Rochelle M. Edge & Michael T. Kiley & Jean-Philippe Laforte, 2007. "Documentation of the Research and Statistics Division’s estimated DSGE model of the U.S. economy: 2006 version," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-53, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Hess T. Chung & Michael T. Kiley & Jean-Philippe Laforte, 2010. "Documentation of the Estimated, Dynamic, Optimization-based (EDO) model of the U.S. economy: 2010 version," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2010-29, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Rochelle M. Edge & Michael T. Kiley & Jean-Philippe Laforte, 2007. "Natural rate measures in an estimated DSGE model of the U.S. economy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-08, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. repec:dgr:uvatin:2012144 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Mandelman, Federico S., 2013. "Monetary and exchange rate policy under remittance fluctuations," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 128-147.
  7. Kilponen, Juha, 2009. "Euler consumption equation with non-separable preferences over consumption and leisure and collateral constraints," Research Discussion Papers 9/2009, Bank of Finland.
  8. Casado, Jose Maria & Alvarez-Cuadrado, Francisco & Labeaga, Jose Maria & Sutthiphisal, Dhanoos, 2012. "Envy and habits: Panel data estimates of interdependent preferences," MERIT Working Papers 054, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
  9. Michael T. Kiley & Jean-Philippe Laforte & Rochelle M. Edge, 2008. "The Sources of Fluctuations in Residential Investment: A View from a Policy-Oriented DSGE Model of the U.S. Economic," 2008 Meeting Papers 990, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  10. Yvonne Adema & Lorenzo Pozzi, 2012. "Business Cycle Fluctuations and Private Savings in OECD Countries: A Panel Data Analysis," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-144/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
  11. Buffie, Edward F., 2013. "The Taylor principle fights back, Part I," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2771-2795.
  12. Tesfaselassie, Mewael F., 2014. "Trend growth and learning about monetary policy rules," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 241-256.
  13. Tobias Cwik, 2012. "Fiscal consolidation using the example of Germany," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-80, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  14. Kilponen, Juha & Vilmunen, Jouko & Vähämaa, Oskari, 2013. "Estimating intertemporal elasticity of substitution in a sticky price model," Research Discussion Papers 9/2013, Bank of Finland.
  15. repec:dgr:uvatin:2010049 is not listed on IDEAS

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