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ASEAN in a regional perspective

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Author Info
Jeffrey Frankel
Shang-Jin Wei

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Abstract

There are two striking conventional wisdoms about the status of regional trading blocs in East Asia. The first is that the only formal regional arrangement in the area, ASEAN, does not in fact function as an economic bloc. Trade among the members is thought to be very low. The second is that East Asia taken as a whole does function as a trading and investment bloc, under Japanese direction, and increasingly so over time. This despite the absence of any formal preferential trading area among these countries. This characterization of East Asian trading patterns is not entirely correct. ; Trade among the ASEAN economies is in fact higher than one would expect, based on their income levels and other important determinants of bilateral trade. The same is true of trade within East Asia more broadly (or trade within an ASEAN-Australia-New Zealand grouping). To the extent that this regional concentration of trade is attributed to formal or informal regional trading arrangements, they appear to be trade-creating, not trade-diverting. ; The gravity model of bilateral trade used in this study implies that trade among Southeast Asian countries will in the future continue to grow more rapidly than incomes. Our model thereby implies that trade among ASEAN countries will grow at about 12 percent a year faster than the world average, which is 16 percent. If plans for AFTA are realized in a meaningful way, than intra-ASEAN trade should increase much more rapidly. pubtype working paper ; asiaold

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its series Pacific Basin Working Paper Series with number 96-02.

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Date of creation: 1996
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfpb:96-02

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Keywords: ASEAN ; Free trade ; Asia ; East Asia ; International trade CL P HG2567 S3A55;

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  1. Diwan, Ishac & Hoekman, Bernard, 1999. "Competition, Complementarity and Contagion in East Asia," CEPR Discussion Papers 2112, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Norman Loayza & Humberto Lopez & Angel Ubide, 1999. "Comovement and Macroeconomic Interdependence: Evidence for Latin America, East Asia, and Europe," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 60, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  3. Yin-Wong Cheung & XingWang Qian, 2009. "The Empirics of China's Outward Direct Investment," Working Papers 172009, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
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  4. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2004. "Trade Costs," NBER Working Papers 10480, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2000. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 485, Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Céline Carrère & Maurice Schiff, 2005. "On the Geography of Trade. Distance is Alive and Well," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 56(6), pages 1249-1274. [Downloadable!]
  7. Agnes Benassy-Quere & Amina Lahreche-Revil, 2003. "Trade Linkages and Exchange Rates in Asia: The Role of China," Working Papers 2003-21, CEPII research center. [Downloadable!]
  8. Carrere, Celine & Schiff, Maurice, 2004. "On the geography of trade : distance is alive and well," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3206, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Diaz-Bautista, Alejandro, 2002. "The role of telecommunications infrastructure and human capital: Mexico´s economic growth and convergence," ERSA conference papers ersa02p102, European Regional Science Association. [Downloadable!]
  10. Foroutan, Faezeh, 1998. "Does membership in a regional preferential trade arrangement make a country more or less protectionist?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1898, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  11. Timothy Bond, 1998. "Capital Flows to Asia: The Role of Monetary Policy," Empirica, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 165-182, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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