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Asset liquidity, debt valuation and credit risk

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Ethan Cohen-Cole

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Abstract

This paper presents a structural debt valuation model that links default probabilities and recovery rates of corporate securities to asset market liquidity. This linking is advantageous for risk management and regulation of financial institutions in that it provides a method of calibrating the relationship between probability of default (PD) and loss given default (LGD). Two innovations in the paper are the placing of the default point in a model of debt valuation into general equilibrium and conditioning this point on market factors such as asset liquidity. These allow one to derive implications on the correlation between various components of the model. Specifically, it finds two relationships between the probability of default (PD) and loss given default (LGD) of a debt instrument; temporal correlations are positive and cross-sectional ones negative. Such findings confirm the intuition of existing reduced form approaches and provide the ability to inspect other properties of the relationship that derive from theory. For example, one can use the model to forecast LGD. Some empirical validation of the theoretical results is provided.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Boston in its series Quantitative Analysis Unit Working Paper with number QAU07-5.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbqu:qau07-5

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Keywords: Securities ; Default (Finance);

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  1. Edward I. Altman & Andrea Resti & Andrea Sironi, 2002. "The link between default and recovery rates: effects on the procyclicality of regulatory capital ratios," BIS Working Papers 113, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  2. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Diamond, Douglas W, 1991. "Debt Maturity Structure and Liquidity Risk," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(3), pages 709-37, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Williamson, Oliver E, 1988. " Corporate Finance and Corporate Governance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(3), pages 567-91, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Dixit, Avinash, 1993. "Choosing among alternative discrete investment projects under uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 265-268. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1995. " A Simple Approach to Valuing Risky Fixed and Floating Rate Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 789-819, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Todd C. Pulvino, 1998. "Do Asset Fire Sales Exist? An Empirical Investigation of Commercial Aircraft Transactions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(3), pages 939-978, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Jose A. Lopez, 2005. "Empirical analysis of the average asset correlation for real estate investment trusts," Working Paper Series 2005-22, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Acharya, Viral V. & Bharath, Sreedhar T. & Srinivasan, Anand, 2007. "Does industry-wide distress affect defaulted firms? Evidence from creditor recoveries," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(3), pages 787-821, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Per Strömberg, 2000. "Conflicts of Interest and Market Illiquidity in Bankruptcy Auctions: Theory and Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(6), pages 2641-2692, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Jon Frye, 2000. "Depressing recoveries," Emerging Issues, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Oct. [Downloadable!]
  12. Lopez, Jose A., 2004. "The empirical relationship between average asset correlation, firm probability of default, and asset size," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 265-283, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Oliver Hart & John Moore, 1998. "Default And Renegotiation: A Dynamic Model Of Debt," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-41, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Carlos González-Aguado & Max Bruche, 2006. "Recovery Rates, Default Probabilities and the Credit Cycle," FMG Discussion Papers dp572, Financial Markets Group. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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