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Options-based structural model estimation of bond recovery rates

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  • Cangemi, Robert R.
  • Mason, Joseph R.
  • Pagano, Michael S.
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    Abstract

    The paper demonstrates that a real options structural model of borrower-creditor debt re-negotiations can help explain the cross-sectional variability of losses on defaulted debt securities. The explanatory power of this approach can be improved even further via a system of equations that incorporates additional information by jointly estimating the market values of debt and equity. Empirical tests with a large number of corporate defaults confirm the usefulness of this method. Moreover, higher volatility and lower discount rates around business cycle turning points can result in stakeholders waiting relatively longer for additional returns from defaulted debt. Such optimal stopping behavior based on a real options model mitigates the reduction in face value of debt but can prolong the duration of financial distress.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1042957311000519
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Financial Intermediation.

    Volume (Year): 21 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 3 ()
    Pages: 473-506

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinin:v:21:y:2012:i:3:p:473-506

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622875

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    1. Max Bruche & Carlos González Aguado, 2006. "Recovery Rates, Default Probabilities And The Credit Cycle," Working Papers wp2006_0612, CEMFI.
    2. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1995. " A Simple Approach to Valuing Risky Fixed and Floating Rate Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 789-819, July.
    3. Jarrow, Robert A & Turnbull, Stuart M, 1995. " Pricing Derivatives on Financial Securities Subject to Credit Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 53-85, March.
    4. Murray Carlson & Adlai Fisher & Ron Giammarino, 2006. "Corporate Investment and Asset Price Dynamics: Implications for SEO Event Studies and Long-Run Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(3), pages 1009-1034, 06.
    5. Oliver Hart & John Moore, 1997. "Default and Renegotiation: A Dynamic Model of Debt," STICERD - Theoretical Economics Paper Series /1997/321, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
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    7. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1999. "Modeling Term Structures of Defaultable Bonds," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 687-720.
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    15. Joseph R. Mason, 2005. "A Real Options Approach to Bankruptcy Costs: Evidence from Failed Commercial Banks During the 1990s," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(4), pages 1523-1554, July.
    16. Merton, Robert C., 1973. "On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates," Working papers 684-73., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    17. Jon Frye, 2000. "Depressing recoveries," Emerging Issues, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Oct.
    18. Jon Frye, 2000. "Collateral damage detected," Emerging Issues, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Sep.
    19. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1992. " Liquidation Values and Debt Capacity: A Market Equilibrium Approach," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1343-66, September.
    20. Anari, Ali & Kolari, James & Mason, Joseph, 2005. "Bank Asset Liquidation and the Propagation of the U.S. Great Depression," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(4), pages 753-73, August.
    21. Acharya, Viral V. & Bharath, Sreedhar T. & Srinivasan, Anand, 2007. "Does industry-wide distress affect defaulted firms? Evidence from creditor recoveries," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(3), pages 787-821, September.
    22. Shumway, Tyler, 2001. "Forecasting Bankruptcy More Accurately: A Simple Hazard Model," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(1), pages 101-24, January.
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