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Uncertain futures?: youth attachment to the labor market in the United States and New England

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  • Julia Dennett
  • Alicia Sasser Modestino

Abstract

In the wake of the Great Recession, high levels of unemployment and low labor force participation rates among U. S. youth are of great concern, receiving considerable attention from policy makers and the popular press. These trends have led observers to question what the future path of employment will look like for younger workers. Of particular concern is the share of the youth population that is idle, or what is technically termed ?not in employment, education, or training? (NEET). These individuals are particularly vulnerable to continued adverse labor market outcomes and their prolonged detachment may result in significant individual and social costs. This report analyzes data from multiple sources to trace trends in labor force attachment among youth over the past two decades and quantify the contributing forces that may be driving observed declines in labor force attachment. The data indicate that while all youth were affected by the Great Recession, teens experienced a decline in labor force attachment even prior to the most recent downturn. Between 2000 and 2006, the U. S. economy employed fewer teens within almost all industries and occupations. This trend continued during the Great Recession and subsequent recovery ? suggesting continued uncertainty for youth in the labor market. Yet contrary to conventional wisdom, youth did not become increasingly idle prior to the Great Recession, largely due to rising school enrollment. The share of youth not employed and not in school is no higher than it was two decades ago in the years just after the 1990-1991 recession. To inform regional policymakers, trends for the New England region are discussed throughout the report, specifically when trends for the region differ from those observed nationally. The report concludes with a discussion of the role that public policy could play in addressing the labor market challenges that youth face today.

Suggested Citation

  • Julia Dennett & Alicia Sasser Modestino, 2013. "Uncertain futures?: youth attachment to the labor market in the United States and New England," New England Public Policy Center Research Report 13-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbcr:13-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Erica L. Groshen & Simon M. Potter, 2003. "Has structural change contributed to a jobless recovery?," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 9(Aug).
    2. Alicia Sasser Modestino, 2010. "Mismatch in the labor market: measuring the supply of and demand for skilled labor in New England," New England Public Policy Center Research Report 10-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    3. David H. Autor & Frank Levy & Richard J. Murnane, 2003. "The skill content of recent technological change: an empirical exploration," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
    4. Kenneth M. Johnson & Daniel T. Lichter, 2010. "The changing faces of America's children and youth," New England Community Developments, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 7-11.
    5. Hilary Hoynes & Douglas L. Miller & Jessamyn Schaller, 2012. "Who Suffers during Recessions?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 27-48, Summer.
    6. Nir Jaimovich & Seth Pruitt & Henry E. Siu, 2009. "The Demand for Youth: Implications for the Hours Volatility Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 14697, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Sanders Korenman & David Neumark, 2000. "Cohort Crowding and Youth Labor Markets (A Cross-National Analysis)," NBER Chapters, in: Youth Employment and Joblessness in Advanced Countries, pages 57-106, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. International Labour Organization., 2015. "Global employment trends for youth 2015 : scaling up investments in decent jobs for youth," Global Employment Trends Reports 994891803402676, International Labour Office, Economic and Labour Market Analysis Department.
    2. Modestino, Alicia Sasser & Paulsen, Richard J., 2019. "Reducing inequality summer by summer: Lessons from an evaluation of the Boston Summer Youth Employment Program," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 40-53.
    3. Canyon Bosler & Mary C. Daly & John G. Fernald & Bart Hobijn, 2017. "The Outlook for US Labor-Quality Growth," NBER Chapters, in: Education, Skills, and Technical Change: Implications for Future US GDP Growth, pages 61-110, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Mr. Ravi Balakrishnan & Mai Dao & Mr. Juan Sole & Jeremy Zook, 2015. "Recent U.S. Labor Force Dynamics: Reversible or not?," IMF Working Papers 2015/076, International Monetary Fund.

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