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Evaluating the existence of structural change in the brazilian term structure of interest : evidence based on cointegration models with structural break

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  • Marçal, Emerson Fernandes
  • Valls Pereira, Pedro L.

Abstract

This paper investigates whether there is evidence of structural change in the Brazilian term structure of interest rates. Multivariate cointegration techniques are used to verify this evidence. Two econometrics models are estimated. The rst one is a Vector Autoregressive Model with Error Correction Mechanism (VECM) with smooth transition in the deterministic coe¢ cients (Ripatti and Saikkonen [25]). The second one is a VECM with abrupt structural change formulated by Hansen [13]. Two datasets were analysed. The rst one contains a nominal interest rate with maturity up to three years. The second data set focuses on maturity up to one year. The rst data set focuses on a sample period from 1995 to 2010 and the second from 1998 to 2010. The frequency is monthly. The estimated models suggest the existence of structural change in the Brazilian term structure. It was possible to document the existence of multiple regimes using both techniques for both databases. The risk premium fordi¤erent spreads varied considerably during the earliest period of both samples and seemed to converge to stable and lower values at the end of the sample period. Long-term risk premiums seemed to converge to inter-national standards, although the Brazilian term structure is still subject to liquidity problems for longer maturities.

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File URL: http://bibliotecadigital.fgv.br/dspace/bitstream/10438/10025/1/TD%20314%20-%20CEQEF%2004%20-%20Emerson%20Mar%c3%a7al%20e%20%20Pedro%20Valls.pdf
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Paper provided by Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil) in its series Textos para discussão with number 314.

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Date of creation: 17 Sep 2012
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Handle: RePEc:fgv:eesptd:314

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  1. José Valentim Machado Vicente & Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho Guillen, 2013. "Do inflation-linked bonds contain information about future inflation?," Revista Brasileira de Economia, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 67(2), pages 251-260, June.
  2. Saikkonen, Pentti, 2001. "Statistical Inference In Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models With Nonlinear Time Trends In Cointegrating Relations," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(02), pages 327-356, April.
  3. Shiller, Robert J. & Huston McCulloch, J., 1990. "The term structure of interest rates," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 13, pages 627-722 Elsevier.
  4. Bent Nielsen & Takamitsu Kurita, 2004. "Short-run parameter changes in a cointegrated vector autoregressive model," Economics Series Working Papers 2005-W01, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  5. repec:wop:humbsf:2001-93 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  7. Fernandes Ribeiro, Priscila & Pereira, Pedro Luiz Valls, 2010. "Economic cycles and term structure : application to Brazil," Textos para discussão 259, Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  8. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, September.
  9. Peter Reinhard Hansen, 2000. "Structural Changes in the Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model," Working Papers 2000-20, Brown University, Department of Economics.
  10. Hwan Seo, Myung, 2011. "Estimation Of Nonlinear Error Correction Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(02), pages 201-234, April.
  11. Jesus Gonzalo & Jean-Yves Pitarakis, 2006. "Threshold effects in cointegrating relationships," Economics Working Papers we20060621, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía.
  12. Giuseppe Cavaliere & Anders Rahbek & A.M.Robert Taylor, 2008. "Testing for Co-integration in Vector Autoregressions with Non-Stationary Volatility," CREATES Research Papers 2008-50, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  13. Engsted, Tom & Tanggaard, Carsten, 1994. "Cointegration and the US term structure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 167-181, January.
  14. Pagan, A.R. & Hall, A.D. & Martin, V., 1995. "Modelling the Term Structure," Papers 284, Australian National University - Department of Economics.
  15. Hall, Anthony D & Anderson, Heather M & Granger, Clive W J, 1992. "A Cointegration Analysis of Treasury Bill Yields," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(1), pages 116-26, February.
  16. Dennis Kristensen & Anders Rahbek, 2007. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Nonlinear Error-Correction Models," CREATES Research Papers 2007-38, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  17. Saikkonen, Pentti, 2001. "Consistent Estimation In Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models With Nonlinear Time Trends In Cointegrating Relations," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(02), pages 296-326, April.
  18. Osmani Teixeira De Carvalho Guillen & Benjamin M. Tabak, 2009. "Characterising the Brazilian term structure of interest rates," International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 2(2), pages 103-114.
  19. Benjamin Miranda Tabak & Sandro Canesso de Andrade, 2001. "Testing the Expectations Hypothesis in the Brazilian Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers Series 30, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  20. Ripatti, Antti & null, Pentti, 2001. "Vector Autoregressive Processes With Nonlinear Time Trends In Cointegrating Relations," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(04), pages 577-597, September.
  21. Saikkonen, Pentti, 2008. "Stability Of Regime Switching Error Correction Models Under Linear Cointegration," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(01), pages 294-318, February.
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