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Vector Autoregressive Processes With Nonlinear Time Trends In Cointegrating Relations

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  • Ripatti, Antti
  • null, Pentti

Abstract

We extend the conventional cointegrated VAR model to allow for general nonlinear deterministic trends. These nonlinear trends can be used to model gradual structural changes in the intercept term of the cointegrating relations. A general asymptotic theory of estimation and statistical inference is reviewed and a diagnostic test for the correct specification of an employed nonlinear trend is developed. The methods are applied to Finnish interest-rate data. A smooth level shift of the logistic form between the own-yield of broad money and the short-term money market rate is found appropriate for these data. The level shift is motivated by the deregulation of issuing certificates of deposit and its inclusion in the model solves the puzzle of the missing cointegration vector found in a previous study.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Cambridge University Press in its journal Macroeconomic Dynamics.

Volume (Year): 5 (2001)
Issue (Month): 04 (September)
Pages: 577-597

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Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:5:y:2001:i:04:p:577-597_02

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Cited by:
  1. He, Changli & Teräsvirta, Timo & González, Andres, 2002. "Testing parameter constancy in stationary vector autoregressive models against continuous change," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 507, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 06 May 2004.
  2. Marçal, Emerson Fernandes & Valls Pereira, Pedro L., 2012. "Evaluating the existence of structural change in the brazilian term structure of interest : evidence based on cointegration models with structural break," Textos para discussão 314, Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  3. Juhl, Ted & Xiao, Zhijie, 2005. "A nonparametric test for changing trends," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 127(2), pages 179-199, August.
  4. Hannu Koskinen, 2004. "Modelling of Structural Changes in Demand for Money Cointegration Relations," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 17(2), pages 63-72, Autumn.
  5. He, Changli & Sandberg, Rickard, 2005. "Inference for Unit Roots in a Panel Smooth Transition Autoregressive Model where the Time Dimension is Fixed," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 581, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 18 Feb 2005.
  6. Calza, Alessandro & Manrique, Marta & Sousa, Joao, 2006. "Credit in the euro area: An empirical investigation using aggregate data," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 211-226, May.

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