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Likelihood-Based Inference in Nonlinear Error-Correction Models

Author

Listed:
  • Dennis Kristensen
  • Anders Rahbek

    (School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus, Denmark and CREATES)

Abstract

We consider a class of vector nonlinear error correction models where the transfer function (or loadings) of the stationary relation- ships is nonlinear. This includes in particular the smooth transition models. A general representation theorem is given which establishes the dynamic properties of the process in terms of stochastic and deter- ministic trends as well as stationary components. In particular, the behaviour of the cointegrating relations is described in terms of geo- metric ergodicity. Despite the fact that no deterministic terms are included, the process will have both stochastic trends and a linear trend in general. Gaussian likelihood-based estimators are considered for the long- run cointegration parameters, and the short-run parameters. Asymp- totic theory is provided for these and it is discussed to what extend asymptotic normality and mixed normaity can be found. A simulation study reveals that cointegration vectors and the shape of the adjust- ment are quite accurately estimated by maximum likelihood, while at the same time there is very little information about some of the individual parameters entering the adjustment function.

Suggested Citation

  • Dennis Kristensen & Anders Rahbek, 2007. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Nonlinear Error-Correction Models," CREATES Research Papers 2007-38, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    • Handle: RePEc:aah:create:2007-38
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    File URL: https://repec.econ.au.dk/repec/creates/rp/07/rp07_38.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    3. Dirk Baur & Duy Tran, 2014. "The long-run relationship of gold and silver and the influence of bubbles and financial crises," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 1525-1541, December.

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