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Business Cycle Effects on Labour Force Transitions for Older People in Spain

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Author Info
Sergi Jiménez Martín
Judit Vall Castello

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Abstract

This paper analyses the determinants of observed exits from employment for people aged 45-59 years old in the context of the Spanish labour market in 1981-2006. The main aim of the paper is to identify the effect of the business cycle (BC) on the timing and the type of exit route out of the labour force. We proceed in two stages. In the first stage, we study the determinants of exits from employment to non-employment. In the second, we take into account the fact that there are several competing exit routes (unemployment, disability or inactivity) and estimate a competing risk model to evaluate how important BC conditions are in determining the respective exit probabilities. We make use of the recently released Muestra Continua de Vidas Laborales to estimate discrete time hazard regression models. We match this information with a number of variables constructed with macroeconomic data derived from the Instituto Nacional de Estadistica to measure growth and employability performance of different economic sectors and regions in Spain in order to capture the variation in the business cycle between times, sectors and regions. Time-varying covariates are also included in the analysis to model the monetary incentives provided by the system. We find that both BC conditions and a number of special schemes included in the unemployment and disability legislation affect the exit timing and also the choice of the route out of the labour market.

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Paper provided by FEDEA in its series Working Papers with number 2009-25.

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Date of creation: Jul 2009
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Handle: RePEc:fda:fdaddt:2009-25

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  1. Meghir, Costas & Whitehouse, Edward, 1997. "Labour market transitions and retirement of men in the UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 327-354, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Olympia Bover & Manuel Arellano & Samuel Bentolila, 2002. "Unemployment Duration, Benefit Duration and the Business Cycle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(479), pages 223-265, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Blau, David M, 1994. "Labor Force Dynamics of Older Men," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(1), pages 117-56, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Michele Boldrin & Sergi Jimenez-Martin & Franco Peracchi, 1999. "Social Security and Retirement in Spain," NBER Chapters, in: Social Security and Retirement around the World, pages 305-353 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-29.

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