Forecasting Levels of log Variables in Vector Autoregressions
AbstractSometimes forecasts of the original variable are of interest although a variable appears in logarithms (logs) in a system of time series. In that case converting the forecast for the log of the variable to a naive forecast of the original variable by simply applying the exponential transformation is not optimal theoretically. A simple expression for the optimal forecast under normality assumptions is derived. Despite its theoretical advantages the optimal forecast is shown to be inferior to the naive forecast if specification and estimation uncertainty are taken into account. Hence, in practice using the exponential of the log forecast is preferable to using the optimal forecast.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by European University Institute in its series Economics Working Papers with number ECO2009/24.
Date of creation: 2009
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Vector autoregressive model; cointegration; forecast root mean square error;
Other versions of this item:
- Bårdsen, Gunnar & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 2011. "Forecasting levels of log variables in vector autoregressions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1108-1115, October.
- Gunnar Bårdsen & Helmut Lütkepohl, 2009. "Forecasting Levels of log Variables in Vector Autoregressions," Working Paper Series 10409, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology.
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-07-11 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2009-07-11 (Central Banking)
- NEP-ECM-2009-07-11 (Econometrics)
- NEP-FOR-2009-07-11 (Forecasting)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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