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Understanding the Dynamic Effects of Government Spending on Foreign Trade

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  • Gernot J. Mueller

Abstract

In order to understand the dynamic effects of government spending on foreign trade the present paper proceeds in two steps. First, using U.S. time series data for the post-Bretton-Woods period, the dynamic effects of government spending are investigated within a structural Vector Autoregression framework: the nominal exchange rate is found to depreciate, the terms of trade to appreciate and the trade balance to increase significantly after a temporary increase in government spending. In a second step, a New-Keynesian general equilibrium model is used to rationalize these effects. Two findings emerge: i) a low elasticity of substitution between home and foreign goods is necessary for the trade balance to improve after an increase in public spending. ii) an accommodating monetary policy is found to dampen the effects of government spending on foreign trade.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European University Institute in its series Economics Working Papers with number ECO2004/27.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:eui:euiwps:eco2004/27

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Keywords: Government Spending; Exchange Rate; Trade Balance; Terms of Trade; Policy Interaction;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Hafedh Bouakez & Foued Chihi & Michel Normandin, 2011. "Fiscal Policy and External Adjustment: New Evidence," Cahiers de recherche 1123, CIRPEE.
  2. Bussière, Matthieu & Fratzscher, Marcel & Müller, Gernot J., 2005. "Productivity shocks, budget deficits and the current account," Working Paper Series 0509, European Central Bank.
  3. Makin, Anthony J. & Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema, 2014. "What expenditure does Anglosphere foreign borrowing fund?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 63-78.
  4. Born, Benjamin & Juessen, Falko & Müller, Gernot, 2012. "Exchange rate regimes and fiscal multipliers," CEPR Discussion Papers 8986, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Kia, Amir, 2013. "Determinants of the real exchange rate in a small open economy: Evidence from Canada," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 163-178.
  6. Nickel, Christiane & Tudyka, Andreas, 2013. "Fiscal stimulus in times of high debt: reconsidering multipliers and twin deficits," Working Paper Series 1513, European Central Bank.
  7. Enders, Zeno & Müller, Gernot & Scholl, Almuth, 2010. "How do Fiscal and Technology Shocks affect Real Exchange Rates? New Evidence for the United States," CEPR Discussion Papers 7732, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Kayhan, Selim & Bayat, Tayfur & Yüzbaşı, Bahadir, 2013. "Government expenditures and trade deficits in Turkey: Time domain and frequency domain analyses," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 153-158.
  9. Christopher Erceg & Luca Guerrieri, 2005. "Expansionary Fiscal Shocks and the Trade Deficit," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 128, Society for Computational Economics.
  10. Hebous, Shafik, 2009. "The Effects of Discretionary Fiscal Policy on Macroeconomic Aggregates: A Reappraisal," MPRA Paper 23300, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2010.
  11. Roel Beetsma & Massimo Giuliodori, 2010. "Discretionary Fiscal Policy: Review and Estimates for the EU," CESifo Working Paper Series 2948, CESifo Group Munich.
  12. Pieroni, Luca & Lorusso, Marco, 2013. "The Role of Fiscal Policy Components in Private Consumption: a Re-examination of the Effects of Military and Civilian Spending," MPRA Paper 47878, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. L. Marattin & S. Salotti, 2009. "The Response of Private Consumption to Different Public Spending Categories: VAR Evidence from UK," Working Papers 670, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.

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