IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/eth/wpswif/11-144.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

International Trade and Net Investment: Theory and Evidence

Author

Abstract

The theory of welfare accounting shows that comprehensive measures of net investment can be used to test whether an economy is following unsustainable paths of consumption. However, the notion of net investment used in most applied studies rules out technological progress and terms-of-trade gains from international trade. This paper considers an augmented expression of net investment derived from a dynamic growth model featuring international trade in different types of resource inputs, exogenous productivity growth in final sectors, and cost-reducing progress in resource extraction. Calculating augmented net investment for the world's top twenty oil producers, we show that the difference with standard non-augmented measures can be large and may even revert some established con- clusions regarding sustainability: prospects are more favorable than previously thought in oil-exporting countries endowed with large reserves like Angola, Azerbaijan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. In oil-importing economies, future consumption possibilities are limited by the lack of expected rental incomes from future resource exports.

Suggested Citation

  • Lucas Bretschger & Simone Valente, 2011. "International Trade and Net Investment: Theory and Evidence," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 11/144, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    • Handle: RePEc:eth:wpswif:11-144
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ethz.ch/content/dam/ethz/special-interest/mtec/cer-eth/cer-eth-dam/documents/working-papers/WP-11-144.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Avinash Dixit & Peter Hammond & Michael Hoel, 1980. "On Hartwick's Rule for Regular Maximin Paths of Capital Accumulation and Resource Depletion," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 47(3), pages 551-556.
    2. Svensson, Lars E O, 1986. " On the Intergenerational Allocation of Natural Resources: Comment," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 88(1), pages 153-155.
    3. Corrado Di Maria & Simone Valente, 2006. "The Direction of Technical Change in Capital-Resource Economies," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 06/50, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    4. Heal, Geoffrey M., 1993. "The optimal use of exhaustible resources," Handbook of Natural Resource and Energy Economics, in: A. V. Kneese† & J. L. Sweeney (ed.), Handbook of Natural Resource and Energy Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 18, pages 855-880, Elsevier.
    5. Bretschger, L. & Smulders, J.A., 2003. "Sustainability and Substitution of Exhaustible Natural Resources : How Resource Prices Affect Long-Term R&D Investments," Discussion Paper 2003-71, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    6. Christian Groth & Poul Schou, 2002. "Can non-renewable resources alleviate the knife-edge character of endogenous growth?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 54(3), pages 386-411, July.
    7. Heal, Geoffrey & Kristrom, Bengt, 2005. "National income and the environment," Handbook of Environmental Economics, in: K. G. Mäler & J. R. Vincent (ed.), Handbook of Environmental Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 22, pages 1147-1217, Elsevier.
    8. Kenneth J. Arrow & Partha Dasgupta & Karl-Göran Mäler, 2003. "The genuine savings criterion and the value of population," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 21(2), pages 217-225, March.
    9. Pezzey, J.C.V.John C. V., 2004. "One-sided sustainability tests with amenities, and changes in technology, trade and population," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 613-631, July.
    10. Pezzey, J., 1992. "Sustainable Development Concepts; An Economic Analysis," Papers 2, World Bank - The World Bank Environment Paper.
    11. Asheim, Geir B, 1994. " Net National Product as an Indicator of Sustainability," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 96(2), pages 257-265.
    12. Martin L. Weitzman, 1976. "On the Welfare Significance of National Product in a Dynamic Economy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 90(1), pages 156-162.
    13. Di Maria, Corrado & Valente, Simone, 2008. "Hicks meets Hotelling: the direction of technical change in capital–resource economies," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(6), pages 691-717, December.
    14. Vincent, Jeffery & Panayotou, Theodore & Hartwick, John, 1997. "Resource Depletion And Sustainability In Small Open Economies," Harvard Institute for International Development (HIID) Papers 294389, Harvard University, Kennedy School of Government.
    15. Hartwick, John M., 1990. "Natural resources, national accounting and economic depreciation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 291-304, December.
    16. World Bank, 2011. "World Development Indicators 2011," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2315, December.
    17. Simone Valente, 2008. "Optimal Growth, Genuine Savings And Long‐Run Dynamics," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 55(2), pages 210-226, May.
    18. Asheim, Geir B. & Weitzman, Martin L., 2001. "Does NNP growth indicate welfare improvement?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 233-239, November.
    19. Solow, Robert M, 1986. " On the Intergenerational Allocation of Natural Resources," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 88(1), pages 141-149.
    20. Vellinga, Nico & Withagen, Cees, 1996. "On the Concept of Green National Income," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(4), pages 499-514, October.
    21. Heal, Geoffrey & Kristrom, Bengt, 2008. "A note on national income in a dynamic economy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 98(1), pages 2-8, January.
    22. Edward Barbier, 1999. "Endogenous Growth and Natural Resource Scarcity," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 14(1), pages 51-74, July.
    23. Vincent, Jeffrey R. & Panayotou, Theodore & Hartwick, John M., 1997. "Resource Depletion and Sustainability in Small Open Economies," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 274-286, July.
    24. Sefton, J. A. & Weale, M. R., 1996. "The net national product and exhaustible resources: The effects of foreign trade," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 21-47, July.
    25. Martin L. Weitzman, 1997. "Sustainability and Technical Progress," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 99(1), pages 1-13, March.
    26. Partha Dasgupta & Geoffrey Heal, 1974. "The Optimal Depletion of Exhaustible Resources," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 41(5), pages 3-28.
    27. F. A. Lutz, 1961. "The Theory of Capital," International Economic Association Series, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-349-08452-4 edited by D. C. Hague, December.
    28. Schulze, William D., 1974. "The optimal use of non-renewable resources: The theory of extraction," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 53-73, May.
    29. Lucas Bretschger & Sjak Smulders, 2007. "Sustainable Resource Use and Economic Dynamics," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 36(1), pages 1-13, January.
    30. repec:reg:rpubli:132 is not listed on IDEAS
    31. repec:nsr:niesrd:73 is not listed on IDEAS
    32. Pearce, David W. & Atkinson, Giles D., 1993. "Capital theory and the measurement of sustainable development: an indicator of "weak" sustainability," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 103-108, October.
    33. Maler, Karl-Goran, 1986. " On the Intergenerational Allocation of Natural Resources: Comment," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 88(1), pages 151-152.
    34. Geir Asheim, 2004. "Green national accounting with a changing population," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 23(3), pages 601-619, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lucas Bretschger & Simone Valente, 2011. "International economics and natural resources: from theory to policy," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 115-120, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Geir B. Asheim, 2003. "Green national accounting for welfare and sustainability:A Taxonomy Of Assumptions And Results," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 50(2), pages 113-130, May.
    2. Nick Hanley & Louis Dupuy & Eoin McLaughlin, 2015. "Genuine Savings And Sustainability," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(4), pages 779-806, September.
    3. Pezzey, J.C.V.John C. V., 2004. "One-sided sustainability tests with amenities, and changes in technology, trade and population," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 613-631, July.
    4. John C. V. Pezzey, 2002. "One-sided Unsustainability Tests and NNP Measurement with Multiple Consumption Goods," Economics and Environment Network Working Papers 0208, Australian National University, Economics and Environment Network.
    5. John C. V. Pezzey, 2002. "A One-sided Sustainability Test With Multiple Consumption Goods," Working Papers in Ecological Economics 0201, Australian National University, Centre for Resource and Environmental Studies, Ecological Economics Program.
    6. Toman, Michael & Pezzey, John C., 2002. "The Economics of Sustainability: A Review of Journal Articles," RFF Working Paper Series dp-02-03, Resources for the Future.
    7. Geir B. Asheim & Rintaro Yamaguchi, 2023. "Comprehensive National Accounting for Carbon Emissions," CESifo Working Paper Series 10562, CESifo.
    8. Geir B. Asheim & Wolfgang Buchholz, 2004. "A General Approach to Welfare Measurement through National Income Accounting," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 106(2), pages 361-384, June.
    9. Asheim, Geir B., 2000. "Green national accounting: why and how?," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(1), pages 25-48, February.
    10. Adrian Boos, 2015. "Genuine Savings as an Indicator for “Weak” Sustainability: Critical Survey and Possible Ways forward in Practical Measuring," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-37, April.
    11. Bazhanov, Andrei, 2011. "Investment and resource policy under a modified Hotelling rule," MPRA Paper 32428, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Partha Dasgupta, 2009. "The Welfare Economic Theory of Green National Accounts," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 42(1), pages 3-38, January.
    13. van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2010. "Why do many resource-rich countries have negative genuine saving?: Anticipation of better times or rapacious rent seeking," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 28-44, January.
    14. Rubio, M. del Mar, 2004. "The capital gains from trade are not enough: evidence from the environmental accounts of Venezuela and Mexico," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 1175-1191, November.
    15. Eugenio Figueroa B. & Enrique Calfucura T., 2002. "Depreciación del Capital Natural, Ingreso y Crecimiento Sostenible: Lecciones de la Experiencia Chilena," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 138, Central Bank of Chile.
    16. Simone Valente, 2005. "Genuine dissaving and optimal growth," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 05/38, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    17. Jeffrey A. Krautkraemer, 1998. "Nonrenewable Resource Scarcity," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 2065-2107, December.
    18. McGrath, Luke & Hynes, Stephen & McHale, John, 2019. "Augmenting the World Bank's estimates: Ireland's genuine savings through boom and bust," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 1-1.
    19. Bazhanov, A., 2011. "The Dependence of the Potential Sustainability of a Resource Economy on the Initial State: a Comparison of Models Using the Example of Russian Oil Extraction," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, issue 12, pages 77-100.
    20. John C. V. Pezzey, 2004. "Sustainability Policy and Environmental Policy," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 106(2), pages 339-359, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    International Trade; Natural Resources; Net Investment; Sustainability; Technological Progress;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • F11 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Neoclassical Models of Trade
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eth:wpswif:11-144. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iwethch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.