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Long-Run Effects of Post-Kyoto Policies: Applying a Fully Dynamic CGE model with Heterogeneous Capital

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Abstract

The paper develops a new type of CGE model to predict the effects of carbon policies on consumption, welfare, and sectoral development in the long run. Growth is fully endogenous, based on increasing specialization in capital varieties, and speci c in each sector of the economy. The benchmark scenario is calculated based on the endogenous gains from specialization which carry over to policy simulation. Applying the model to the Swiss economy we nd that a carbon policy following the Copenhagen Accord entails a moderate but not negligible welfare loss compared to development without any negative e ects of climate change. Energy extensive as well as capital and knowledge intensive sectors pro t in the form of increased growth rates.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich in its series CER-ETH Economics working paper series with number 10/129.

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Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:eth:wpswif:10-129

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Keywords: Carbon policy; CGE models; energy and endogenous growth; heterogeneous capital;

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  1. Gerlagh, Reyer, 2007. "Measuring the value of induced technological change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5287-5297, November.
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  4. Barro, R.J., 1988. "Government Spending In A Simple Model Of Endogenous Growth," RCER Working Papers 130, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  5. Azusa OKAGAWA & Kanemi BAN, 2008. "Estimation of substitution elasticities for CGE models," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 08-16, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics and Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP).
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  7. Buonanno, Paolo & Carraro, Carlo & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Galeotti, Marzio, 2000. "Emission Trading Restrictions with Endogenous Technological Change," CEPR Discussion Papers 2514, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Edenhofer, Ottmar & Bauer, Nico & Kriegler, Elmar, 2005. "The impact of technological change on climate protection and welfare: Insights from the model MIND," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2-3), pages 277-292, August.
  9. Grubler, Arnulf & Messner, Sabine, 1998. "Technological change and the timing of mitigation measures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(5-6), pages 495-512, December.
  10. Sabine Messner, 1997. "Endogenized technological learning in an energy systems model," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 291-313.
  11. Ethier, Wilfred J, 1982. "National and International Returns to Scale in the Modern Theory of International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 389-405, June.
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