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The Service Sector as India’s Road to Economic Growth?

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  • Barry Eichengreen

    ()

  • Poonam Gupta

    ()

Abstract

Among fast growing developing countries, India is distinctive for the role of the service sector. However, sceptics have raised doubts about both the quality and sustainability of the increase in service sector activity and its implications for economic development. Using National Accounts Statistics and cross-county data, we show that the growth of services has been broad-based. We show that the growth of service sector employment is not simply disguised manufacturing activity. We also find that the skilled-unskilled mix of labour in the two sectors is becoming increasingly similar. Hence, it is no longer obvious that manufacturing is the main destination for the vast majority of Indian labour moving into the modern sector and that modern services are only a viable destination for the highly skilled few. To the extent that the expansion of both modern manufacturing and modern services is constrained by the availability of skilled labour, this just underscores the importance for India of continuing to invest in labour skills. We conclude that sustaining economic growth and raising living standards will require shifting labour out of agriculture into both manufacturing and services and not just into one or the other.[Working Paper No. 249]

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Paper provided by eSocialSciences in its series Working Papers with number id:2604.

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Date of creation: Jun 2010
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Handle: RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:2604

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References

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  1. Arvind Subramanian & Raghuram Rajan & Ioannis Tokatlidis & Kalpana Kochhar & Utsav Kumar, 2006. "India's Pattern of Development: What Happened, What Follows?," IMF Working Papers 06/22, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Ingo Borchert & Aaditya Mattoo, 2009. "The crisis-resilience of services trade," The Service Industries Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(13), pages 2115-2136, August.
  3. Barry Bosworth & Susan M. Collins & Arvind Virmani, 2006. "Sources of Growth in the Indian Economy," India Policy Forum, Global Economy and Development Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 3(1), pages 1-69.
  4. J. Bradford Jensen & Lori G. Kletzer, 2005. "Tradable Services: Understanding the Scope and Impact of Services Outsourcing," Working Paper Series WP05-9, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  5. Poonam Gupta & James P. F. Gordon, 2004. "Understanding India’s Services Revolution," IMF Working Papers 04/171, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Rashmi Banga & B.N.Goldar, 2004. "Contribution of services to output growth and productivity in Indian manufacturing: Pre and post reforms," Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi Working Papers 139, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi, India.
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Cited by:
  1. Verma, Rubina, 2012. "Can total factor productivity explain value added growth in services?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 163-177.
  2. Shashidhara Kolavalli & Elizabeth Robinson & Guyslain Ngeleza & Felix Asante, 2012. "Economic Transformation in Ghana: Where Will the Path Lead?," Journal of African Development, African Finance and Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 41-78.
  3. Mishra, Saurabh & Lundstrom, Susanna & Anand, Rahul, 2011. "Service export sophistication and economic growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5606, The World Bank.
  4. Felipe, Jesus & Kumar, Utsav & Abdon, Arnelyn, 2013. "Exports, capabilities, and industrial policy in India," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 939-956.
  5. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chen, Mei-Ping & Chang, Chi-Hung, 2013. "Dynamic relationships between industry returns and stock market returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 119-144.
  6. K.V. Ramaswamy & Tushar Agrawal, 2012. "Services-led growth, employment and job quality: A Study of manufacturing and service-sector in urban India," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2012-007, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
  7. de Vries, Gaaitzen J. & Erumban, Abdul A. & Timmer, Marcel P. & Voskoboynikov, Ilya & Wu, Harry X., 2012. "Deconstructing the BRICs: Structural transformation and aggregate productivity growth," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 211-227.
  8. Eichengreen, Barry & Gupta, Poonam, 2012. "Exports of Services: Indian Experience in Perspective," Working Papers 12/102, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
  9. Banerjee, Rajabrata & Roy, Saikat Sinha, 2014. "Human capital, technological progress and trade: What explains India's long run growth?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 15-31.
  10. Shepherd, Ben & Pasadilla, Gloria, 2012. "Services as a New Engine of Growth for ASEAN, the People’s Republic of China, and India," ADBI Working Papers 349, Asian Development Bank Institute.
  11. Mukherji, Arnab & Mukherji, Anjan, 2012. "Bihar: What Went Wrong? And What Changed?," Working Papers 12/107, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
  12. Mark Weisbrot & Rebecca Ray, 2011. "The Scorecard on Development, 1960-2010: Closing the Gap?," CEPR Reports and Issue Briefs 2011-09, Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR).
  13. Nobuaki Yamashita, 2012. "Can India become an export platform for global operations of Japanese and American multinational corporations affiliates?," Working Papers 11112, Asia-Pacific Research and Training Network on Trade (ARTNeT), an initiative of UNESCAP and IDRC, Canada..
  14. Shingal, ANIRUDH, 2010. "Services growth and convergence: Getting India’s states together," MPRA Paper 32813, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  15. Utsav, Kumar, 2010. "India’s Demographic Transition: Boon or Bane? A State-Level Perspective," MPRA Paper 24922, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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