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The Impact of AFTA on Intra-AFTA Trade

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  • Shujiro URATA

    (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia)

  • Misa OKABE

    (Wakayama University, Japan)

Abstract

ASEAN countries have liberalized intra-ASEAN trade over the last 20 years by establishing the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA). This paper aims to examine the impact of trade liberalization under AFTA on intra-ASEAN trade. By applying a gravity model, we find positive and significant trade creation effects from the tariff elimination for a wide range of products. We also find that the elasticity of tariff reduction on imports tends to be much larger than that on exports. Trade creation effects for the new ASEAN members are relatively small compared to those for the old members. Our results show that AFTA has been successful in promoting intra-AFTA trade, but we argue that further expansion may be achieved by increasing the use of AFTA and by reducing/removing non-tariff measures (NTMs) through such ways as improving customs procedures and harmonizing/mutually recognizing product standards.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) in its series Working Papers with number DP-2013-05.

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Length: 44 pages
Date of creation: May 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2013-05

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Keywords: ASEAN Free Trade Area; Intra-regional trade; Gravity model; Trade creation effect.;

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References

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  1. Robert Scollay & John P. Gilbert, 2001. "New Regional Trading Arrangements in the Asia Pacific?," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number pa63.
  2. Yongcheol Shin & Laura Serlenga, 2007. "Gravity models of intra-EU trade: application of the CCEP-HT estimation in heterogeneous panels with unobserved common time-specific factors," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 361-381.
  3. URATA Shujiro & OKABE Misa, 2010. "Trade Creation and Diversion Effects of Regional Trade Agreements on Commodity Trade," Discussion papers 10007, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  4. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2007. "Do free trade agreements actually increase members' international trade?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 72-95, March.
  5. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 8079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Feenstra, Robert C, 2002. "Border Effects and the Gravity Equation: Consistent Methods for Estimation," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 49(5), pages 491-506, December.
  7. Yongcheol Shin & Laura Serlenga, 2004. "Gravity Models of the Intra-EU Trade: Application of the Hausman-Taylor Estimation in Heterogeneous Panels with Common Time-specific Factors," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 671, Econometric Society.
  8. Takahashi Katsuhide & Urata Shujiro, 2010. "On the Use of FTAs by Japanese Firms: Further Evidence," Business and Politics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-17, April.
  9. Yusuf Shahid & M. Anjum Altaf & Kaoru Nabeshima, 2004. "Global Change and East Asian Policy Initiatives," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 14928, August.
  10. Maurice J. G. Bun & Franc J. G. M. Klaassen & G. K. Randolph Tan, 2009. "Free Trade Areas And Intra-Regional Trade: The Case Of Asean," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 54(03), pages 319-334.
  11. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-16, March.
  12. Richard Pomfret & Uwe Kaufmann & Christopher Findlay, 2010. "Are Preferential Tariffs Utilized? Evidence from Australian Imports, 2000-9," School of Economics Working Papers 2010-13, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.
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