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Structural Estimation of Gravity Models with Path-dependent Market Entry

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  • Egger, Peter
  • Pfaffermayr, Michael

Abstract

This paper develops a structural empirical general equilibrium model of aggregate bilateral trade with path dependence of country-pair level exporter status. Such path dependence is motivated through informational costs about serving a foreign market for first-time entry of (firms in) an export market versus continued export services to that market. We embed the theoretical model into a structural dynamic stochastic econometric model of bilateral selection into export markets and apply it to a data-set of aggregate bilateral exports among 120 countries over the period 1995-2004. In particular, we disentangle the role of changes in trade costs, in labor endowments, and in total factor productivity for trade, bilateral market entry, numbers of firms active, and welfare. Dynamic gains from trade differ significantly from static ones, and path-dependence in market entry cushions effects of impulses in fundamental variables that are detrimental to bilateral trade.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 8458.

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Date of creation: Jun 2011
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8458

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Keywords: Bilateral trade flows; Dynamic random effects model; Gravity equation; Sample selection;

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  1. Peter Egger & Mario Larch & Kevin E. Staub & Rainer Winkelmann, 2011. "The Trade Effects of Endogenous Preferential Trade Agreements," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 113-43, August.
  2. Mohnen, Pierre & Raymond, Wladimir & Palm, Franz & Schim van der Loeff, Sybrand, 2007. "The Behavior of the Maximum Likelihood Estimator of Dynamic Panel Data Sample Selection Models," MERIT Working Papers 007, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
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  8. James E. Anderson, 2010. "The Incidence of Gravity," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 732, Boston College Department of Economics.
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Cited by:
  1. Tamini, Lota D. & Doyon, Maurice & Simon, Rodrigue, 2012. "Analyzing trade liberalization effect in egg sector using a dynamic gravity model," MPRA Paper 39315, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Jienwatcharamongkhol, Viroj, 2012. "Distance Sensitivity of Export: A Firm-Product Level Approach," Working Papers 2012:33, Lund University, Department of Economics.
  3. Lota D. Tamini & Maurice Doyon & Rodrigue Simon, 2012. "Analyzing Trade Liberalization Effect in the Egg Sector Using a Dynamic Gravity Model," Cahiers de recherche CREATE 2012-6, CREATE.
  4. Tamini, Lota Dabio & Doyon, Maurice & Simon, Rodrigue, 2012. "Analyzing Trade Liberalization Effect in the Egg Sector Using a Dynamic Gravity Model," Working Papers 125286, University of Laval, Center for Research on the Economics of the Environment, Agri-food, Transports and Energy (CREATE).

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