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Structural Estimation of Gravity Models with Path-Dependent Market Entry

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  • Peter Egger
  • Michael Pfaffermayr

Abstract

This paper develops a structural empirical general equilibrium model of aggregate bilateral trade with path dependence of country-pair level exporter status. Such path dependence is motivated through informational costs about serving a foreign market for first-time entry of (firms in) an export market versus continued export services to that market. We embed the theoretical model into a structural dynamic stochastic econometric model of bilateral selection into import markets and apply it to a data-set of aggregate bilateral exports among 120 countries over the period 1995-2004. In particular, we disentangle the role of changes in trade costs, in labor endowments, and in total factor productivity for trade, bilateral market entry, numbers of firms active, and welfare. Dynamic gains from trade differ significantly from static ones, and path-dependence in market entry cushions effects of impulses in fundamental variables that are detrimental to bilateral trade.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by FIW in its series FIW Research Reports series with number III-007.

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Length: 65
Date of creation: Sep 2011
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Handle: RePEc:wsr:ecbook:2011:i:iii-007

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Keywords: Bilateral trade flows; Gravity equation; Dynamic random effects model; Sample selection;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Lota D. Tamini & Maurice Doyon & Rodrigue Simon, 2012. "Analyzing Trade Liberalization Effect in the Egg Sector Using a Dynamic Gravity Model," Cahiers de recherche CREATE 2012-6, CREATE.
  2. Tamini, Lota D. & Doyon, Maurice & Simon, Rodrigue, 2012. "Analyzing trade liberalization effect in egg sector using a dynamic gravity model," MPRA Paper 39315, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Tamini, Lota Dabio & Doyon, Maurice & Simon, Rodrigue, 2012. "Analyzing Trade Liberalization Effect in the Egg Sector Using a Dynamic Gravity Model," Working Papers 125286, University of Laval, Center for Research on the Economics of the Environment, Agri-food, Transports and Energy (CREATE).
  4. Jienwatcharamongkhol, Viroj, 2012. "Distance Sensitivity of Export: A Firm-Product Level Approach," Working Papers 2012:33, Lund University, Department of Economics.

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