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Markov Switching Risk Premium and the term structure of interest rates. Empirical evidence from US post-war interest rates

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  • Gutiérrez Huerta, María José
  • Vázquez Pérez, Jesús

Abstract

This paper considers the basic present value model of interest rates under rational expectations with two additional features. First, following McCallum (1994), the model assumes a policy reaction function where changes in the short-term interest rate are determined by the long-short spread. Second, the short-term interest rate and the risk premium processes are characterized by a Markov regime-switching model. Using US post-war interest rate data, this paper finds evidence that a two-regime switching model fits the data better than the basic model. The estimation results also show the presence of two alternative states displaying quite different features.

Suggested Citation

  • Gutiérrez Huerta, María José & Vázquez Pérez, Jesús, 2002. "Markov Switching Risk Premium and the term structure of interest rates. Empirical evidence from US post-war interest rates," DFAEII Working Papers 1988-088X, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehu:dfaeii:6762
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    References listed on IDEAS

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