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Partial lockdown and the spread of Covid-19: lessons from the Italian case

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  • di Porto, Edoardo
  • Naticchioni, Paolo
  • Scrutinio, Vincenzo

Abstract

This paper investigates the effect of exemption of essential sectors from the lockdown enacted in Italy in Spring 2020 on COVID-19 infections and mortality. We exploit the distribution of the density of essential workers across provinces and rich administrative data in a difference in difference framework. We find that a standard deviation increase in essential workers per square kilometre leads to about 1.1 additional daily registered cases per 100,000 inhabitants. In addition, we show that a similar change in density leads to 0.32 additional daily deaths per 100,000 inhabitants. Back of envelope computations suggest that about one third of the Covid-19 cases in the period considered could be attributed to the less stringent lockdown for essential sectors as well as about 13,000 additional deaths, with an additional 107 million Euros in direct expenditure for the National Health System. In addition, we find that these effects are heterogeneous across sectors, with Services having a much larger impact than Manufacturing, and across geographic areas, with smaller benefits in areas less affected by the pandemic. These results are stable across a wide range of specifications and robustness check.

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  • di Porto, Edoardo & Naticchioni, Paolo & Scrutinio, Vincenzo, 2020. "Partial lockdown and the spread of Covid-19: lessons from the Italian case," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 108231, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:108231
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrea Fazio & Tomasso Reggiani & Fabio Sabatini, 2021. "The political cost of lockdown´s enforcement," MUNI ECON Working Papers 2021-04, Masaryk University, revised Feb 2023.
    2. Brandily, Paul & Brébion, Clément & Briole, Simon & Khoury, Laura, 2021. "A poorly understood disease? The impact of COVID-19 on the income gradient in mortality over the course of the pandemic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    3. Deiana, Claudio & Geraci, Andrea & Mazzarella, Gianluca & Sabatini, Fabio, 2022. "Can relief measures nudge compliance in a public health crisis? Evidence from a kinked fiscal policy rule," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 407-428.
    4. Wolter H. J. Hassink & Guyonne Kalb & Jordy Meekes, 2021. "Regional Coronavirus Hotspots During the COVID-19 Outbreak in the Netherlands," De Economist, Springer, vol. 169(2), pages 127-140, May.
    5. Manuel Pérez Trujillo & Miguel Atienza, 2021. "The Initial Labor Market Conditions in Developing Economies as a Factor in Understanding the Progression of SARS-CoV-2: The Case of Chile," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-20, February.
    6. Paul Brandily & Clément Brébion & Simon Briole & Laura Khoury, 2021. "A Poorly Understood Disease? The Evolution of the Income Gradient in Excess Mortality Due to COVID-19 within Urban Areas," Working Papers halshs-03154551, HAL.
    7. Deiana, Claudio & Geraci, Andrea & Mazzarella, Gianluca & Sabatini, Fabio, 2021. "COVID-19 Relief Programs and Compliance with Confinement Measures," IZA Discussion Papers 14064, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Armillei, Francesco & Filippucci, Francesco & Fletcher, Thomas, 2021. "Did Covid-19 hit harder in peripheral areas? The case of Italian municipalities," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    9. Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina & Borra, Cristina & Rivera-Garrido, Noelia & Sevilla, Almudena, 2021. "Early adoption of non-pharmaceutical interventions and COVID-19 mortality," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    coronavirus; Covid-19; lockdown; essential sectors;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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