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Difference-in-Differences to Identify Causal Effects of COVID-19 Policies

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  • Andrew Goodman-Bacon
  • Jan Marcus

Abstract

Policymakers have implemented a wide range of non-pharmaceutical interventions to fight the spread of COVID-19. Variation in policies across jurisdictions and over time strongly suggests a difference-in-differences (DD) research design to estimate causal effects of counter-COVID measures. We discuss threats to the validity of these DD designs and make recommendations about how researchers can avoid bias, interpret results accurately, and provide sound guidance to policymakers seeking to protect public health and facilitate an eventual economic recovery.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Goodman-Bacon & Jan Marcus, 2020. "Difference-in-Differences to Identify Causal Effects of COVID-19 Policies," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1870, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1870
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    File URL: https://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.789794.de/dp1870.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Difference-in-differences; non-pharmaceutical interventions; COVID-19; causal inference;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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