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Market Efficiency Test in the VIX Futures Market

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  • Jian Zhang
  • Lee W. Sanning

    ()

  • Sherrill Shaffer

    ()

Abstract

This paper tests the random walk hypothesis and weak form market efficiency in the VIX futures market using a variety of tests. A unit root in the aggregated market price series suggests that the VIX futures market is efficient. For the individual VIX futures price series, 51 of 54 futures contracts meet the sufficient condition for an efficient market: the prices are found to follow a random walk either because there is a unit root or because the increments are not correlated. Overall, the market for VIX futures has been efficient since the first day of trading.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University in its series CAMA Working Papers with number 2010-08.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2010-08

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  1. Lo, Andrew W. & MacKinlay, A. Craig, 1989. "The size and power of the variance ratio test in finite samples : A Monte Carlo investigation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 203-238, February.
  2. Bailey,Roy E., 2005. "The Economics of Financial Markets," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521612807, April.
  3. Andrew W. Lo & A. Craig MacKinlay, 1987. "Stock Market Prices Do Not Follow Random Walks: Evidence From a Simple Specification Test," NBER Working Papers 2168, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Liu, Christina Y & He, Jia, 1991. " A Variance-Ratio Test of Random Walks in Foreign Exchange Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 773-85, June.
  5. Bera, Anil K. & Jarque, Carlos M., 1981. "Efficient tests for normality, homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression residuals : Monte Carlo Evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 313-318.
  6. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1987. "Commodity Futures Prices: Some Evidence on Forecast Power, Premiums,and the Theory of Storage," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(1), pages 55-73, January.
  7. Osamah M. Al-Khazali & David K. Ding & Chong Soo Pyun, 2007. "A New Variance Ratio Test of Random Walk in Emerging Markets: A Revisit," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 303-317, 05.
  8. Chen, En-Te (John) & Clements, Adam, 2007. "S&P 500 implied volatility and monetary policy announcements," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 227-232, December.
  9. Twm Evans, 2006. "Efficiency tests of the UK financial futures markets and the impact of electronic trading systems," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(17), pages 1273-1283.
  10. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
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