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Asymmetric Effects of Government Spending: Does the Level of Real Interest Rates Matter?

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  • Michael B. Devereux
  • Woon Gyu Choi

Abstract

This paper examines empirical issues on asymmetric effects of government spending. Increases in government spending under low real interest rates are not associated with the same increases in future tax liabilities as those under high real interest rates. Consequently, the negative impact from the Ricardian effect is smaller with lower real rates. Our empirical work on US data, using threshold regression models, provides new evidence that an expansionary government spending is more conducive to real activities when real rates are low. We also find asymmetric effects on interest rates and threshold effects associated with substitution between financing methods.

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  • Michael B. Devereux & Woon Gyu Choi, 2004. "Asymmetric Effects of Government Spending: Does the Level of Real Interest Rates Matter?," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 666, Econometric Society.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecm:feam04:666
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    1. Iheonu O Chimere & Tochukwu Nwachukwu, 2020. "Macroeconomic determinants of household consumption in selected West African countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(2), pages 1596-1606.
    2. Ibrar Hussain & Jawad Hussain & Arshad Ali & Shabir Ahmad, 2021. "A Dynamic Analysis of the Impact of Fiscal Adjustment on Economic Growth: Evidence From Pakistan," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(2), pages 21582440211, June.
    3. Kameda, Keigo, 2014. "What causes changes in the effects of fiscal policy? A case study of Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 14-31.
    4. Sascha Buetzer, 2022. "Advancing the Monetary Policy Toolkit through Outright Transfers," IMF Working Papers 2022/087, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper, 2008. "Endogenous Monetary Policy Regime Change," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2006, pages 345-391, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Daniel Choi & Mark Holmes, 2014. "Budget deficits and real interest rates: a regime-switching reflection on Ricardian Equivalence," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 38(1), pages 71-83, January.
    7. Mr. Il Houng Lee & Woon Gyu Choi, 2010. "Monetary Transmission of Global Imbalances in Asian Countries," IMF Working Papers 2010/214, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Vincent Belinga & Mr. Constant A Lonkeng Ngouana, 2015. "(Not) Dancing Together: Monetary Policy Stance and the Government Spending Multiplier," IMF Working Papers 2015/114, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Liaqat, Zara, 2019. "Does government debt crowd out capital formation? A dynamic approach using panel VAR," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 86-90.
    10. Thomas Habanabakize, 2021. "Determining the Household Consumption Expenditure’s Resilience towards Petrol Price, Disposable Income and Exchange Rate Volatilities," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-15, June.
    11. Andreas G. Georgantopoulos & Anastasios D. Tsamis, 2012. "The Interrelationship between Money Supply, Prices and Government Expenditures and Economic Growth: A Causality Analysis for the Case of Cyprus," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), International Hellenic University (IHU), Kavala Campus, Greece (formerly Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology - EMaTTech), vol. 5(3), pages 115-128, December.
    12. Woon Gyu Choi, 2007. "Measuring Interest Rates as Determined by Thrift and Productivity," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 8(1), pages 167-195, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal policy; government spending; Ricardian equivalence; real interest rates; regime switching; threshold vector autoregression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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