The Deficit Gamble
AbstractThe historical behavior of interest rates and growth rates in U.S. data suggests that the government can, with a high probability, run temporary budget deficits and then roll over the resulting government debt forever. The purpose of this paper is to document this finding and to examine its implications. Using a standard overlapping-generations model of capital accumulation, we show that whenever a perpetual rollover of debt succeeds, policy can make every generation better off. This conclusion does not imply that deficits are good policy, for an attempt to roll over debt forever might fail. But the adverse effects of deficits, rather than being inevitable, occur with only a small probability.
Download InfoTo our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Harvard - Institute of Economic Research in its series Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers with number 1710.
Date of creation: 1995
Date of revision:
Other versions of this item:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Blanchard Olivier & Weil Philippe, 2001.
"Dynamic Efficiency, the Riskless Rate, and Debt Ponzi Games under Uncertainty,"
The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics,
De Gruyter, vol. 1(2), pages 1-23, November.
- Olivier Jean Blanchard & Philippe Weil, 1992. "Dynamic Efficiency, the Riskless Rate, and Debt Ponzi Games Under Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 3992, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Olivier J. Blanchard & Philippe Weil, 2001. "Dynamic Efficiency, the Riskless Rate, and Debt Ponzi Games under Uncertainty," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/8607, Sciences Po.
- Peled, Dan, 1982. "Informational diversity over time and the optimality of monetary equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 255-274, December.
- Stephen G. Cecchetti & Pok-sang Lam & Nelson C. Mark, 1990.
"Mean Reversion in Equilibrium Asset Prices,"
NBER Working Papers
2762, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Henning Bohn, 1991.
"The sustainability of budget deficits with lump-sum and with income-based taxation,"
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 580-612.
- Bohn, Henning, 1991. "The Sustainability of Budget Deficits with Lump-Sum and with Income-Based Taxation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(3), pages 580-604, August.
- Henning Bohn, . "The Sustainability of Budget Deficits with Lump-Sum and with Income-Based Taxation," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 17-90, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Bohn, H., 1990. "The Substainability Of Budget Deficits With Lump-Sum And With Income-Based Taxation," Weiss Center Working Papers 17-90, Wharton School - Weiss Center for International Financial Research.
- Romer, D., 1988.
"What Are The Costs Of Excessive Deficits?,"
14, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Discussion Paper.
- Andrew B. Abel & N. Gregory Mankiw & Lawrence H. Summers & Richard J. Zeckhauser, 1989.
"Assessing Dynamic Efficiency: Theory and Evidence,"
NBER Working Papers
2097, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Andrew Abel & Gregory N. Mankiw & Lawrence H. Summers & Richard Zeckhauser, . "Assessing Dynamic Efficiency: Theory and Evidence," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 14-88, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Butkiewicz, James L., 1983. "The market value of outstanding government debt : Comment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 373-379.
- Stephen A. O'Connell & Stephen P. Zeldes, .
"Rational Ponzi Games,"
Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers
18-86, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- repec:fth:calaec:8-93 is not listed on IDEAS
- Cass, David, 1972. "On capital overaccumulation in the aggregative, neoclassical model of economic growth: A complete characterization," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 200-223, April.
- Bohn, Henning, 1999. "Fiscal Policy and the Mehra-Prescott Puzzle: On the Welfare Implications of Budget Deficits When Real Interest Rates Are Low," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(1), pages 1-13, February.
- Benjamin M. Friedman, 1978. "Crowding Out or Crowding In? Economic Consequences of Financing Government Deficits," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 9(3), pages 593-641.
Blog mentionsAs found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
- Crowding Out and the Perils of Oversimplified Models
by Tom Bozzo in angry bear on 2009-01-30 22:08:00
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Thomas Krichel).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.