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European carbon prices and banking restrictions: evidence from phase I (2005-2007)

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Author Info
Emilie Alberola
Julien Pierre Chevallier

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Abstract

The price of European Union Allowances (EUAs) has been declining at far lower levels than expected during Phase I (2005-2007). Previous literature identifies among its main explanations over-allocation concerns, early abatement efforts in 2005 and possibly decreasing abatement costs in 2006. We advocate low allowance prices may also be explained by banking restrictions between 2007 and 2008 which undermine the ability of the EU ETS to provide an efficient price signal. Based on a Hotelling-type analysis, our results suggest EUA prices do not reflect adequately abatement costs. We also give evidence that the French ban on banking and the expected allowance scarcity at the end of Phase I computed by the Ellerman-Parsons ratio contribute to the explanation of low EUA prices. This situation may be interpreted as a sacrifice of the temporal flexibility offered to industrials in Phase I to give a chance to correct design inefficiencies and achieve an efficient price pattern leading to effective abatement efforts in Phase II.

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Paper provided by University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX in its series EconomiX Working Papers with number 2007-32.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:drm:wpaper:2007-32

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Related research
Keywords: Carbon emissions trading EU ETS Banking Borrowing Hotelling rule Ellerman-Parsons ratio.

Find related papers by JEL classification:
Q28 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Government Policy
Q52 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Pollution Control Costs; Distributional Effects; Employment Effects
Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Pindyck, Robert S, 1993. "The Present Value Model of Rational Commodity Pricing," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(418), pages 511-30, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Timothy N. Cason & Lata Gangadharan, 2004. "Emissions Variability in Tradable Permit Markets with Imperfect Enforcement and Banking," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 917, The University of Melbourne. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Kling, Catherine & Rubin, Jonathan, 1997. "Bankable permits for the control of environmental pollution," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 101-115, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Paul Leiby & Jonathan Rubin, 2001. "Intertemporal Permit Trading for the Control of Greenhouse Gas Emissions," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 19(3), pages 229-256, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Margaret E. Slade & Henry Thille, 1997. "Hotelling Confronts CAPM: A Test of the Theory of Exhaustible Resources," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 30(3), pages 685-708, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Grubb, M. & Neuhoff, K., 2006. "Allocation and competitiveness in the EU emissions trading scheme: policy overview," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0645, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
  7. Schleich, Joachim & Ehrhart, Karl-Martin & Hoppe, Christian & Seifert, Stefan, 2006. "Banning banking in EU emissions trading?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 112-120, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Lee, Junsoo & Strazicich, Mark, 2001. "Testing the Null of Stationarity in the Presence of a Structural Break," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 8(6), pages 377-82, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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