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European carbon prices and banking restrictions: evidence from phase I (2005-2007)

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Author Info
Emilie Alberola
Julien Pierre Chevallier

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Abstract

The price of European Union Allowances (EUAs) has been declining at far lower levels than expected during Phase I (2005-2007). Previous literature identifies among its main explanations over-allocation concerns, early abatement efforts in 2005 and possibly decreasing abatement costs in 2006. We advocate low allowance prices may also be explained by banking restrictions between 2007 and 2008 which undermine the ability of the EU ETS to provide an efficient price signal. Based on a Hotelling-type analysis, our results suggest EUA prices do not reflect adequately abatement costs. We also give evidence that the French ban on banking and the expected allowance scarcity at the end of Phase I computed by the Ellerman-Parsons ratio contribute to the explanation of low EUA prices. This situation may be interpreted as a sacrifice of the temporal flexibility offered to industrials in Phase I to give a chance to correct design inefficiencies and achieve an efficient price pattern leading to effective abatement efforts in Phase II.

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Paper provided by University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX in its series EconomiX Working Papers with number 2007-32.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:drm:wpaper:2007-32

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Related research
Keywords: Carbon emissions trading; EU ETS; Banking; Borrowing; Hotelling rule; Ellerman-Parsons ratio.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
Q28 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Government Policy
Q52 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Pollution Control Costs; Distributional Effects; Employment Effects
Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  6. Kling, Catherine & Rubin, Jonathan, 1997. "Bankable permits for the control of environmental pollution," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 101-115, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Juan Pablo Montero, 2002. "The Temporal Efficiency of SO2 Emissions Trading," Documentos de Trabajo 225, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile.. [Downloadable!]
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  12. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521023894 is not listed on IDEAS
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  14. Lee, Junsoo & Strazicich, Mark, 2001. "Testing the Null of Stationarity in the Presence of a Structural Break," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 8(6), pages 377-82, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. repec:mop:credwp:09.05.84 is not listed on IDEAS
    Other versions:
  2. Emilie Alberola & Julien Chevallier & Benoît Chèze, 2009. "The EU ETS: CO2 prices drivers during the learning experience (2005-2007)," Working Papers halshs-00389916_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
  3. Julien Chevallier & Yannick Le Pen & Benoît Sévi, 2009. "Options introduction and volatility in the EU ETS," EconomiX Working Papers 2009-33, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX. [Downloadable!]
  4. repec:mop:credwp:09.07.85 is not listed on IDEAS
    Other versions:
  5. Julien Chevallier & Yannick Le Pen & Benoît Sévi, 2009. "Options Introduction and Volatility in the EU ETS," Working Papers halshs-00405709_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
  6. Julien Chevallier & Benoît Sévi, 2009. "On the realized volatility of the ECX CO2 emissions 2008 futures contract: distribution, dynamics and forecasting," Working Papers halshs-00387286_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
  7. Julien Chevallier & Yannick Le Pen & Benoît Sévi, 2009. "Options introduction and volatility in the EU ETS," Working Papers hal-00419339_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
  8. Julien Chevallier & Johanna Etner & Pierre-André Jouvet, 2008. "Bankable Pollution Permits under Uncertainty and Optimal Risk Management Rules: Theory and Empirical Evidence," EconomiX Working Papers 2008-25, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX. [Downloadable!]
  9. Julien Chevallier, 2009. "Intertemporal Emissions Trading and Market Power: A Dominant Firm with Competitive Fringe Model," Working Papers halshs-00388207_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
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