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Is the End of the MFA a threat for the Tunisian Economy?

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  • Mohamed Ali Marouani

    ()
    (DIAL, Université Paris1-Panthéon-Sorbonne/IEDES.)

Abstract

(english) The end of the Multifiber Agreement in January 2005 had a negative impact on the Tunisian apparel industry, but the effects were weaker than expected. Using a dynamic general equilibrium model, the article provides a prospective assessment of the impact on Tunisia of the phase out of the MFA and of the agreement which manages the rate of growth of Chinese clothing exports to Europe until the end of 2007. The main findings are an increase in unemployment and wage inequality, but no significant effects on the main macroeconomic variables if the exchange rate management takes into account this shock. _________________________________ (français) Le démantèlement de l’Accord Multifibres en janvier 2005 a eu un impact négatif sur l’industrie d’habillement tunisienne, mais les effets ont été plus limités que prévu. A l’aide d’un modèle d’équilibre général dynamique l’article propose une évaluation prospective de l’impact sur la Tunisie du démantèlement de l’AMF et de l’accord d’auto-limitation des exportations de vêtements qui prend fin en 2007. La principale conclusion consiste en un accroissement du chômage et des inégalités de salaires. Cependant, en présence d’une gestion adéquate du taux de change par la Banque centrale, les principales autres variables macro-économiques sont peu affectées par le choc.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation) in its series Working Papers with number DT/2007/05.

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Length: 19 pages
Date of creation: May 2007
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Handle: RePEc:dia:wpaper:dt200705

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Keywords: CGE models; employment; textiles; apparel; trade; Tunisia; modèle EGC; emploi; textile; habillement; commerce; Tunisie.;

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