This paper presents a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model for Poland's integration into the European Union (EU) that allows for quantification of income and welfare effects stemming from tariff reduction, border–cost reduction, reduction of technical barriers to trade and increased EU-transfers. For all channels, long-run income increases substantially compared with the reference scenario. The welfare effects are also positive, but much smaller because the welfare measure takes into account the time path of consumption throughout the adjustment period. Typical welfare effects are estimated at less than 1 percent of total consumption over time discounted to the beginning of the adjustment period. This low figure reflects the compression of consumption early in the adjustment period that finances the investment needed to build up the capital stock to support higher output and consumption farther into the future. The paper presents also sensitivity analyses for the CGE model concerning different specifications of the adjustment cost parameters, the intertemporal elasticity of substitution, the Armington substitution elasticity and the rate of time preference. The overall result of the examination of Poland's membership in the EU with the dynamic CGE model draws attention to the fact, that income growth effects as such are not necessarily welfare gains, since growth requires investment and therefore foregone consumption.
Download Info
To download:
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the
proper application to
view it first. Information about this may be contained
in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read
the IDEAS help
page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS
site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Publisher Info
Paper provided by LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, K.U.Leuven in its series LICOS Discussion Papers with number
8900.
Find related papers by JEL classification: D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
Harrison, Glenn W & Rutherford, Thomas F & Tarr, David G, 1997.
"Quantifying the Uruguay Round,"
Economic Journal,
Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(444), pages 1405-30, September.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Did you know? Each page is provided with a technical contact, in case something is not right with the supplied information. See under "publisher info".