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Fisher Hypothesis Revisited: A Fractional Cointegration Analysis

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Author Info
Saadet Kirbas Kasman () (Department of Economics, Faculty of Business, Dokuz Eylül University)
Adnan Kasman () (Department of Economics, Faculty of Business, Dokuz Eylül University)
Evrim Turgutlu () (Department of Economics, Faculty of Business, Dokuz Eylül University)
Abstract

This paper investigates the validity of the Fisher hypothesis using data from 33 developed and developing countries. Conventional cointegration tests do not provide strong evidence on the relationship between nominal interest rates and inflation. Therefore, we use fractional cointegration analysis to test the long-run relationship between the two variables. The results indicate that the long-run relationship between nominal interest rates and inflation do not exist for most countries in the sample when conventional cointegration test is employed. However, fractional cointegration between the two variables is found for a large majority of countries, implying the validity of the Fisher hypothesis. The results also indicate that the equilibrium errors display long memory.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Dokuz Eylül University, Faculty of Business, Department of Economics in its series Discussion Paper Series with number 05/04.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: 23 Nov 2005
Date of revision: 23 Nov 2005
Publication status: Forthcoming in Emerging Markets Trade and Finance
Handle: RePEc:deu:dpaper:0504

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Related research
Keywords: Fisher hypothesis; interest rates; fractional cointegration; long memory;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions

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    Other versions:
  2. Berument, Hakan & Jelassi, Mohamed Mehdi, 2002. "The Fisher Hypothesis: A Multi-country Analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 34(13), pages 1645-55, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Sowell, Fallaw, 1992. "Modeling long-run behavior with the fractional ARIMA model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 277-302, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Sandrine Lardic & Valerie Mignon, 2003. "Fractional cointegration between nominal interest rates and inflation: A re-examination of the Fisher relationship in the G7 countries," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 3(14), pages 1-10. [Downloadable!]
  6. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Granger, Clive W J, 1986. "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 213-28, August.
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  10. Crowder, William J & Hoffman, Dennis L, 1996. "The Long-Run Relationship between Nominal Interest Rates and Inflation: The Fisher Equation Revisited," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(1), pages 102-18, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Soofi, Abdol S, 1998. "A Fractional Cointegration Test of Purchasing Power Parity: The Case of Selected Members of OPEC," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 8(6), pages 559-66, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Noor A. Ghazali & Shamshubariah Ramlee, 2003. "A long memory test of the long-run Fisher effect in the G7 countries," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(10), pages 763-769, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Fama, Eugene F, 1975. "Short-Term Interest Rates as Predictors of Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(3), pages 269-82, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "A Fractional Cointegration Analysis of Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(1), pages 103-12, January.
  15. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1993. "Is the Fisher Effect for Real? A Reexamination of the Relationship Between Inflation and Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 3632, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Evans, Martin D D & Lewis, Karen K, 1995. " Do Expected Shifts in Inflation Affect Estimates of the Long-Run Fisher Relation?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 225-53, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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